IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04327950.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

South Africa's Public Debt: Long-term Dependence, Structural Breaks and Multifractality
[La dette publique de l'Afrique du Sud : dépendance à long terme, ruptures structurelles et multifractalité]

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou

    (UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, UO - Université d'Orléans, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

This paper aims to analyse the evolution of public debt in South Africa using new and original methods. The case of South Africa has been little studied in the literature on debt because the level of debt in this country remains reasonable. Moreover, the use of non-standard methods allows for a fine-grained analysis of the public debt time series and, consequently, to draw unprecedented conclusions. Using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) method borrowed from solid-state physics and medicine, we conclude that South Africa's debt has a multifractal character, which originates from the long memory effect. Thus, South Africa's public debt is unsustainable. The inefficiency of this market has been particularly exacerbated by the various shocks throughout the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2023. "South Africa's Public Debt: Long-term Dependence, Structural Breaks and Multifractality [La dette publique de l'Afrique du Sud : dépendance à long terme, ruptures structurelles et multifractalité]," Post-Print hal-04327950, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04327950
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.670
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04327950
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04327950/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.670?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Are Islamic stock markets efficient? A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 100-105.
    3. Joakim Westerlund & Silika Prohl, 2010. "Panel cointegration tests of the sustainability hypothesis in rich OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1355-1364.
    4. Yongzhou Hou, 2010. "Housing price bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai?," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 17-37, March.
    5. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2008. "Nonlinear Alternatives to Unit Root Tests and Public Finances Sustainability: Some Evidence from Latin American and Caribbean Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 645-663, October.
    6. Charl Jooste & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises in South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 224-233, January.
    2. Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Explosive U.S. budget deficit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1076-1080.
    3. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2021. "Financial bubbles and sustainability of public debt: The case of Spain," Working Papers 2111, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    4. Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "War and peace: Explosive U.S. public debt, 1791–2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-3.
    5. Roberto Martino & Phu Nguyen-Van, 2014. "Labour market regulation and fiscal parameters: A structural model for European regions," Working Papers of BETA 2014-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Mara Leticia Rojas & María María Ibáñez Martín & Carlos Dabús, 2023. "Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 292, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    7. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2009. "Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Non-linear? What does Empirical Evidence Reveal?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2492-2504.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andreea Stoian & Filip Iorgulescu, 2016. "The study of public debt: which are the distinctions between the emerging and advanced economies in the European Union?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 167-196, February.
    10. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    11. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    13. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo.
    14. Cyrus MUTUKU, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Sustainability: A Fiscal Reaction Function for Kenya," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 173-191, September.
    15. Ignat Ignatov, 2020. "The Choice Of An Approach To Fiscal Consolidation," Yearbook of the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria, vol. 18(1), pages 131-144, July.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2020. "Changes in sovereign debt dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 63-71, January.
    17. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2007. "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(63), pages 1-9.
    18. Addi, Abdelhamid & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2023. "Interconnectedness and extreme risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    20. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2012. "Long-Run Debt Sustainability and Threshold Adjustments: Non-Linear Empirical Evidence from the GIIPS," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2586-2593.
    21. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04327950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.