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Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations

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  • Roy, Arup

Abstract

This study aims to give empirical insights into how the linkages between external debt, crude oil price, and personal remittances affect economic growth in India. This research stands out from the rest because it makes use of the newly established unique dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) simulations framework to evaluate long- and short-run cointegration among chosen variables, as well as the impact of negative and positive changes in the regressor on the regressand using annual data from 1990 to 2020. For India, the key findings are as follows: (i) external debt contributes to lower economic growth in the long run as well as the short run; (ii) oil price influences economic growth positively in both the long and short run, and (iii) personal remittance negatively affect economic growth in the long run. Considering empirical facts, this article proposes that the Indian government and policymakers formulate policies that could reduce external debt and improve the nation's economy to reap the potential gain from remittances, which might spur economic development.

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  • Roy, Arup, 2023. "Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:83:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723004531
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103742
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tillaguango, Brayan & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Cuesta, Lizeth & Ahmad, Munir & Alvarado, Rafael & Murshed, Muntasir & Rehman, Abdul & Işık, Cem, 2024. "Impact of oil price, economic globalization, and inflation on economic output: Evidence from Latin American oil-producing countries using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Yosra Saidi, 2024. "Remittances and growth in Africa: Does financial development and institutional quality matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 163-172.
    4. Yağmur Yavuz & Mehmetsıddık Polat, 2024. "Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 334-354, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External debt; Economic growth; Oil price; Remittance inflow; Dynamic ARDL; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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