IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03393018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Stéphane Guibaud

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Keyu Jin

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of relaxing fertility controls and expanding social security in China. We develop an overlapping generations model in which fertility decisions and capital accumulation are endogenously determined in the presence of social security. In our model, children are an alternative savings technology—as they transfer resources to their retired parents. Important feedback links arise between fertility and social security variables: an expansion of social security benefits reduces fertility—partially offsetting the effects of relaxing the one-child policy. The feedback loop between social security variables and fertility suggests that abandoning fertility restrictions may not be as effective in helping to finance China's intended pension reform, especially if children are an important source of old-age support. The sustainability of the pension system is particularly at risk in the event of a growth slowdown. The objective of pension reforms may also be incongruent with other reforms, such as financial liberalization and financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2014. "Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China," Post-Print hal-03393018, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03393018
    DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2014.19
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393018/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/imfer.2014.19?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cox, Donald & Hansen, Bruce E. & Jimenez, Emmanuel, 2004. "How responsive are private transfers to income? Evidence from a laissez-faire economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2193-2219, August.
    2. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    3. Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "Social security pension reform in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 99-107.
    4. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3545-3567, November.
    5. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    6. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    7. Taha Choukhmane & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Keyu Jin, 2023. "The One-Child Policy and Household Saving," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 987-1032.
    8. Cai, Fang & Giles, John & Meng, Xin, 2006. "How well do children insure parents against low retirement income? An analysis using survey data from urban China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2229-2255, December.
    9. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
    10. Mr. Steven V Dunaway & Mr. Vivek B. Arora, 2007. "Pension Reform in China: The Need for a New Approach," IMF Working Papers 2007/109, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Fang Cai & John Giles & Philip O'Keefe & Dewen Wang, 2012. "The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China : Challenges and Prospects," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2249.
    12. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the United States, the European Union, Japan, and China," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 133-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xiaobo He & Rong Zhu, 2016. "Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation: Causal Evidence from Urban China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(5), pages 664-674, September.
    14. repec:wbk:wbpubs:6007 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5e8993t1rs83t9os9ctp26bhfv is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    17. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    19. Yew, Siew Ling & Zhang, Jie, 2009. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 605-619, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yangming Hu & Yingjun Wu & Wei Zhou & Tao Li & Liqing Li, 2020. "A three-stage DEA-based efficiency evaluation of social security expenditure in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Guoqing Shi & Qiulong LYU & Ziheng Shangguan & Tianhe Jiang, 2019. "Facing Climate Change: What Drives Internal Migration Decisions in the Karst Rocky Regions of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Thomas Davoine, 2023. "The joint macroeconomic impacts of capital markets integration and fertility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 687-720, May.
    6. de Silva, Tiloka & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2017. "The large fall in global fertility: A quantitative model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Zeng, Miao & Du, Jiang & Zhu, Xiaoyu & Deng, Xin, 2023. "Does internet use drive rural household savings? Evidence from 7825 farmer households in rural China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Davoine, Thomas, 2022. "Cross-country differences in the long-run economic impacts of increased fertility," IHS Working Paper Series 38, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    10. Liqing Li & He Jiang, 2022. "Development of Fertility, Social Status, and Social Trust of Farmers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-31, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/gaufue4me9tvqtg0t3u18e3la is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/gaufue4me9tvqtg0t3u18e3la is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2014. "Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393018, HAL.
    4. Richard C. Barnett & Joydeep Bhattacharya & Mikko Puhakka, 2018. "Private versus public old-age security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 703-746, July.
    5. Abhijit Banerjee & Xin Meng & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian, 2014. "Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 20050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Zhao Kai, 2011. "Social Security, Differential Fertility, and the Dynamics of the Earnings Distribution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, August.
    7. Nikolov, Plamen & Adelman, Alan, 2019. "Do private household transfers to the elderly respond to public pension benefits? Evidence from rural China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    8. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    9. Cubizol, Damien, 2018. "Transition and capital misallocation: the Chinese case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 88-115.
    10. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2024. "Human capital and pensions with endogenous fertility and retirement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 478-494, March.
    11. Siew Ling Yew & Jie Zhang, 2018. "Health spending, savings and fertility in a lifecycle‐dynastic model with longevity externalities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 186-215, February.
    12. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," SciencePo Working papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    13. Oliveira, Jaqueline, 2016. "The value of children: Inter-generational support, fertility, and human capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Vincenzo Galasso & Roberta Gatti & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 538-559, August.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5402sfihji9vea8rb66cd9nphe is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Filoso, Valerio & Papagni, Erasmo, 2015. "Fertility choice and financial development," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 160-177.
    18. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5402sfihji9vea8rb66cd9nphe is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Spataro, Luca & Renström, Thomas I., 2012. "Optimal taxation, critical-level utilitarianism and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 727-738.
    21. Koichi Miyazaki, 2013. "Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1233-1250, July.
    22. Alexander M. Danzer & Lennard Zyska, 2023. "Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 126-165, May.
    23. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stylianos Sakkas, 2021. "Redistributive policies in general equilibrium," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-08, Joint Research Centre.
    24. Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2016. "Fertility, Longevity, and Capital Flows," 2016 Meeting Papers 442, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    one-child policy; social security; demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03393018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.