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Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills, Central Chile

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  • Sergio Sepúlveda
  • Cristóbal Padilla

Abstract

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago. There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors, are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Sepúlveda & Cristóbal Padilla, 2008. "Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills, Central Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 201-215, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:47:y:2008:i:2:p:201-215
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9210-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. F. Gauthier & D. Germain & B. Hétu, 2017. "Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 201-232, October.
    2. F. Gauthier & B. Hétu & M. Allard, 2015. "Forecasting method of ice blocks fall using logistic model and melting degree–days calculation: a case study in northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 855-880, November.
    3. Gowhar Meraj & Shakil Romshoo & A. Yousuf & Sadaff Altaf & Farrukh Altaf, 2015. "Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on the flood vulnerability of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 153-175, May.
    4. Iván P. Vergara Dal Pont & Fernanda A. Santibañez Ossa & Diego Araneo & Francisco J. Ferrando Acuña & Stella M. Moreiras, 2018. "Determination of probabilities for the generation of high-discharge flows in the middle basin of Elqui River, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 531-546, August.
    5. Christoph Rheinberger & Hans E. Romang & Michael Bründl, 2013. "Proportional loss functions for debris flow events," Post-Print hal-02643847, HAL.

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