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Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil

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  • Murphy, David J.
  • Hall, Charles A.S.

Abstract

Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e. peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e. expensive), and thus will most likely occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks where economic growth, which requires more oil, would require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. We conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.

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  • Murphy, David J. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2011. "Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 67-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:223:y:2011:i:1:p:67-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.06.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Court, Victor & Fizaine, Florian, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 145-159.
    3. Luciano Celi, 2021. "Deriving EROI for Thirty Large Oil Companies Using the CO2 Proxy from 1999 to 2018," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Florian Fizaine & Victor Court, 2016. "The energy-economic growth relationship: a new insight from the EROI perspective," Working Papers 1601, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU & Anastasios XEPAPADEAS, 2021. "Growth, Endogenous Environmental Cycles, and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2889, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    7. Victor Court & Florian Fizaine, 2015. "Estimations of very long-term time series of global energy return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil and gas productions," Working Papers 1510, Chaire Economie du climat.
    8. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    9. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2020. "Economic Growth and the Environment: A Theoretical Reappraisal," DEOS Working Papers 2031, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    11. Ke Zhao & Jingxuan Feng & Lianyong Feng, 2021. "Analysis of the Long-Term Impact of Energy Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Case Study of China," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, December.
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