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Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil

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  • Murphy, David J.
  • Hall, Charles A.S.

Abstract

Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e. peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e. expensive), and thus will most likely occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks where economic growth, which requires more oil, would require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. We conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.

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  • Murphy, David J. & Hall, Charles A.S., 2011. "Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 67-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:223:y:2011:i:1:p:67-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.06.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Court, Victor & Fizaine, Florian, 2017. "Long-Term Estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of Coal, Oil, and Gas Global Productions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 145-159.
    3. Luciano Celi, 2021. "Deriving EROI for Thirty Large Oil Companies Using the CO2 Proxy from 1999 to 2018," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Fizaine, Florian & Court, Victor, 2016. "Energy expenditure, economic growth, and the minimum EROI of society," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 172-186.
    6. Ke Zhao & Jingxuan Feng & Lianyong Feng, 2021. "Analysis of the Long-Term Impact of Energy Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Case Study of China," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, December.
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    8. Jesus Ramos-Martin, 2016. "Biophysical limits of current debates on degrowth and the knowledge economy," Documentos de Trabajo FLACSO Ecuador 2016_04, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO).
    9. Victor Court & Florian Fizaine, 2015. "Estimations of very long-term time series of global energy return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil and gas productions," Working Papers 1510, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    11. Richard Heinberg & Timothy Crownshaw, 2018. "Energy Decline and Authoritarianism," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-11, September.
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