IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-02079212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Rémi Bazillier

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Jérôme Héricourt

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Samuel Ligonnière

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay)

Abstract

How does income inequality and its structure affect credit? We extend the theoretical framework by Kumhof et al. (2015) to distinguish between upper, middle and low-income classes, and show that most of the positive impact of inequality on credit predicted by Kumhof et al. (2015) should be driven by the share of total output owned by the middle classes. Consistently, this impact should weaken in countries where financial markets are insufficiently developed. These theoretical predictions are empirically confirmed by a study based on a 41-country dataset over the period 1970-2014, where exogenous variations of inequality are identified with a new instrument variable, the total number of ILO conventions signed at the country-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2019. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02079212, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-02079212
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02079212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02079212/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    2. Amine Ouazad & Romain Rancière, 2016. "Credit Standards and Segregation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 880-896, December.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Litchfield, Julie A., 2008. "The Rise And Fall Of Brazilian Inequality: 1981–2004," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S2), pages 199-230, September.
    5. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006," Working Papers 2014-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    7. Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
    8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    9. Jenkins, Stephen P., 2015. "The income distribution in the UK: a picture of advantage and disadvantage," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    11. A. B. Atkinson & A. Brandolini, 2009. "On data: a case study of the evolution of income inequality across time and across countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(3), pages 381-404, May.
    12. César Calderón & Alberto Chong, 2009. "Labor market institutions and income inequality: an empirical exploration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 65-81, January.
    13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon, 0. "Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2922-2971.
    14. Cristiano Perugini & Jens Hölscher & Simon Collie, 2016. "Inequality, credit and financial crises," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 227-257.
    15. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    16. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 565-591, September.
    17. Stephen Jenkins, 2015. "World income inequality databases: an assessment of WIID and SWIID," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(4), pages 629-671, December.
    18. Zhuang, Juzhong & Kanbur, Ravi & Rhee, Changyong, 2014. "Rising Inequality in Asia and Policy Implications," ADBI Working Papers 463, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Daniele Checchi & Cecilia García‐Peñalosa, 2010. "Labour Market Institutions and the Personal Distribution of Income in the OECD," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 413-450, July.
    20. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, November.
    21. Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 929-965, August.
    22. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00879814 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Timothy G. Conley & Christian B. Hansen & Peter E. Rossi, 2012. "Plausibly Exogenous," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 260-272, February.
    24. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    25. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-463.
    26. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    27. Andrew Leigh, 2007. "How Closely Do Top Income Shares Track Other Measures of Inequality?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(524), pages 619-633, November.
    28. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    29. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 22618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    31. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    32. Salvatore Morelli & Anthony Atkinson, 2015. "Inequality and crises revisited," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(1), pages 31-51, April.
    33. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2013. "Top Incomes and the Great Recession: Recent Evolutions and Policy Implications," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 456-478, August.
    34. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    35. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01207208 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Markus Christen & Ruskin Morgan, 2005. "Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 145-173, June.
    37. Galbraith, James K., 2012. "Inequality and Instability: A Study of the World Economy Just Before the Great Crisis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199855650.
    38. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," LIS Working papers 496, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    39. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    40. Marianne Bertrand & Adair Morse, 2016. "Trickle-Down Consumption," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 863-879, December.
    41. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    42. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
    43. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 163-193.
    44. Dan Andrews & Andrew Leigh, 2009. "More inequality, less social mobility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1489-1492.
    45. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    46. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," 2014 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," Post-Print halshs-01511070, HAL.
    48. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    49. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(2), pages 231-242, June.
    50. Daniele Checchi & Cecilia García-Peñalosa, 2008. "Labour market institutions and income inequality [‘Globalisation and the great U-turn: Income inequality trends in 16 OECD countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 602-649.
    51. Rakesh Kochhar, 2015. "A Global Middle Class Is More Promise than Reality," LIS Working papers 641, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    52. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2002. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Earnings in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 68-73, March.
    53. Andrea Brandolini & Anthony B. Atkinson, 2001. "Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of "Secondary" Data-Sets: Income Inequality in OECD Countries As a Case Study," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 771-799, September.
    54. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Palma, J.G., 2011. "Homogeneous middles vs. heterogeneous tails, and the end of the ‘Inverted-U’: the share of the rich is what it's all about," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1111, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    56. Pasquale Tridico, 2012. "Financial crisis and global imbalances: its labour market origins and the aftermath," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(1), pages 17-42.
    57. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    58. Frederick Solt, 2015. "On the assessment and use of cross-national income inequality datasets," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(4), pages 683-691, December.
    59. Robert Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2011. "Trends in the covariance structure of earnings in the U.S.: 1969–1987," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 439-459, September.
    60. Thomas Piketty, 2003. "Income Inequality in France, 1901-1998," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(5), pages 1004-1042, October.
    61. Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez & Jae Song, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data Since 1937," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 91-128.
    62. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Nathaniel A. Throckmorton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Ms. Claire Lebarz & Mr. Alexander W. Richter, 2012. "Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2012/008, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying’ai Piao & Meiru Li & Hongyuan Sun & Ying Yang, 2023. "Income Inequality, Household Debt, and Consumption Growth in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 2024. "Income inequality and household debt: A U.S. state-level spatial analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Samuel Ligonnière & Salima Ouerk, 2024. "The unequal distribution of credit: Is there any role for monetary policy?," Working Papers of BETA 2024-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Ruishi Si & Yumeng Yao & Xueqian Zhang & Qian Lu & Noshaba Aziz, 2022. "Exploring the Role of Contiguous Farmland Cultivation and Adoption of No-Tillage Technology in Improving Transferees’ Income Structure: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2023. "Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    7. Yu You & Xiaoying Hu & Zongye Huang, 2024. "Macroprudential policies, capital controls, and income inequality," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1824-1867, September.
    8. Dirk Bezemer & Anna Samarina, 2019. "Debt shift, financial development and income inequality," DNB Working Papers 646, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    10. El Herradi, Mehdi & Leroy, Aurélien, 2020. "Do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Koh, Sharon G. M. & Lee, Grace H. Y. & Siah, Audrey K. L., 2022. "The Resurgence of Income Inequality in Asia-Pacific: The Role of Trade Openness, Educational Attainment and Institutional Quality," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(3), pages 11-27.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bazillier, Rémi & Héricourt, Jérôme & Ligonnière, Samuel, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage: Cross-country causal evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    3. D'Orazio, Paola, 2019. "Income inequality, consumer debt, and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 308-331.
    4. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Fischer, Ronald & Huerta, Diego & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2019. "The inequality-credit nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 105-125.
    6. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    7. Rhee, Dong-Eun & Kim, Hyoungjong, 2018. "Does income inequality lead to banking crises in developing countries? Empirical evidence from cross-country panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 206-218.
    8. Bodea, Cristina & Houle, Christian & Kim, Hyunwoo, 2021. "Do financial crises increase income inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Scheuermeyer, Philipp & Bofinger, Peter, 2016. "Income Distribution and Household Saving: A Non-Monotonic Relationship," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145901, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Till van Treeck, 2012. "Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?," IMK Working Paper 91-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Bofinger, Peter & Scheuermeyer, Philipp, 2016. "Income Distribution and Aggregate Saving: A Non-Monotonic Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 11435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Pascal Paul, 2018. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 583, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Andrea Colciago & Anna Samarina & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "Central Bank Policies And Income And Wealth Inequality: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1199-1231, September.
    15. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    16. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Lei, Chun Kwok, 2021. "The effects of inequality in the 1997–98 Asian crisis and the 2008–09 global tsunami: The case of five Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2019. "Income inequality, consumption, credit and credit risk in a data-driven agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 39-73.
    18. Pascal Paul, 2023. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1641-1665, October.
    19. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit; Finance; Income Inequality; Inequality structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-02079212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.