IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v138y2024ics0264999324001287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Income inequality and household debt: A U.S. state-level spatial analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C.

Abstract

While most agree that the 2007–2008 financial bust stemmed from an excessive credit boom, researchers disagree about the causes of the boom amid income inequality, monetary excesses, and an unregulated credit market. Empirical findings on inequality's impact on credit booms are contradictory. This paper examines the impact of income inequality on household debt, utilizing U.S. state-level data from 1999 to 2015 within macroeconomic and credit market contexts. Diverging from prior research, it provides consistent and robust estimates by using the control function approach to identify exogenous variations in inequality and employing a spatial error panel model to remove significant cross-sectional dependence. The results indicate that inequality indices have a negative or insignificant effect on household debt, while monetary policy and credit market uncertainty also affect household debt. Thus, higher inequality is linked with credit contraction rather than expansion; rising inequality does not trigger a credit boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 2024. "Income inequality and household debt: A U.S. state-level spatial analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:138:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324001287
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Debarsy, Nicolas & Ertur, Cem, 2010. "Testing for spatial autocorrelation in a fixed effects panel data model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 453-470, November.
    2. Tuomas Malinen, 2016. "Does income inequality contribute to credit cycles?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(3), pages 309-325, September.
    3. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    4. Rhee, Dong-Eun & Kim, Hyoungjong, 2018. "Does income inequality lead to banking crises in developing countries? Empirical evidence from cross-country panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 206-218.
    5. Cristiano Perugini & Jens Hölscher & Simon Collie, 2016. "Inequality, credit and financial crises," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 227-257.
    6. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    7. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    8. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2017-01, CEPII research center.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 929-965, August.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    11. Brei, Michael & Ferri, Giovanni & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2023. "Financial structure and income inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Agnello, Luca & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Financial reforms and income inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 583-587.
    13. David Loschiavo, 2021. "Household debt and income inequality: Evidence from Italian survey data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 61-103, March.
    14. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    15. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 1996. "Macroeconomic conditions, class mobility, and inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 315-340.
    16. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    17. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Elhorst, J.Paul, 2018. "A dynamic spatial econometric diffusion model with common factors: The rise and spread of cigarette consumption in Italy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-142.
    18. Bazillier, Rémi & Héricourt, Jérôme & Ligonnière, Samuel, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage: Cross-country causal evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon, 2020. "Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2922-2971.
    20. Baiardi, Donatella & Morana, Claudio, 2018. "Financial development and income distribution inequality in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 40-55.
    21. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    22. Stefan Jestl, 2023. "The impact of income inequality on household indebtedness in euro area countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 151-182, November.
    23. Yamarik, Steven & El-Shagi, Makram & Yamashiro, Guy, 2016. "Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 63-67.
    24. Xinhua Gu & Bihong Huang, 2014. "Does Inequality Lead to a Financial Crisis? Revisited," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 502-516, August.
    25. Jung, Samuel Moon & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 2019. "Financial development and income inequality in China – A spatial data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 295-320.
    26. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    27. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    28. Bodea, Cristina & Houle, Christian & Kim, Hyunwoo, 2021. "Do financial crises increase income inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    29. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    30. Rym Ayadi & Sami B. Naceur & Sandra Challita, 2023. "Does income inequality really matter for credit booms?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(1), February.
    31. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    32. Rym Ayadi & Sami Naceur & Sandra Challita, 2023. "Does income inequality really matter for credit booms?," Post-Print hal-04343874, HAL.
    33. Mark W. Frank, 2009. "Inequality And Growth In The United States: Evidence From A New State‐Level Panel Of Income Inequality Measures," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 55-68, January.
    34. Hayo, Bernd, 2023. "Does the ECB's monetary policy affect personal finances and economic inequality? A household perspective from Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    35. Wildauer, Rafael & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018. "Expenditure cascades, low interest Rates, credit deregulation or property booms? Determinants of household debt in OECD countries," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 20882, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    36. Mehmet Akif Destek & Bilge Koksel, 2019. "Income inequality and financial crises: evidence from the bootstrap rolling window," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, December.
    37. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    38. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    39. Edmond Berisha & John Meszaros, 2018. "Household debt, expected economic conditions, and income inequality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 283-295, July.
    40. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "Control Function Methods in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 420-445.
    41. Xinhua Gu & Pui Sun Tam & Yang Zhang & Chun Kwok Lei, 2019. "Inequality, leverage and crises: Theory and evidence revisited," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(8), pages 2280-2299, August.
    42. Hsiao,Cheng, 2022. "Analysis of Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781009060752, November.
    43. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    44. Hsiao,Cheng, 2022. "Analysis of Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316512104, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuzheng Zhang & Mengjie Bie & Yundong Li & Shuxian Zhang, 2024. "Promoting Sustainability: Land Transfer and Income Inequality Among Farm Households," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    2. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Xinhua Gu & Chun Kwok Lei & Qingbin Zhao & Nian Liu, 2024. "Different experiences of Asian emerging‐market economies in the two major financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3286-3308, July.
    4. Bazillier, Rémi & Héricourt, Jérôme & Ligonnière, Samuel, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage: Cross-country causal evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Wang, Shengquan, 2023. "Income inequality and systemic banking crises: A nonlinear nexus," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    6. El Herradi, Mehdi & Leroy, Aurélien, 2020. "Do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2017. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2017-01, CEPII research center.
    8. D'Orazio, Paola, 2019. "Income inequality, consumer debt, and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 308-331.
    9. Bodea, Cristina & Houle, Christian & Kim, Hyunwoo, 2021. "Do financial crises increase income inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Giri, Federico & Russo, Alberto, 2023. "Inequality-constrained monetary policy in a financialized economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 366-385.
    11. Domonkos, Tomas & Fisera, Boris & Siranova, Maria, 2023. "Income inequality as long-term conditioning factor of monetary transmission to bank rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Berisha, Edmond & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 87-92.
    14. Andrea Colciago & Anna Samarina & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "Central Bank Policies And Income And Wealth Inequality: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1199-1231, September.
    15. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    16. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Lei, Chun Kwok, 2021. "The effects of inequality in the 1997–98 Asian crisis and the 2008–09 global tsunami: The case of five Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Salvatore Morelli & Anthony Atkinson, 2015. "Inequality and crises revisited," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(1), pages 31-51, April.
    18. Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2019. "Income inequality, consumption, credit and credit risk in a data-driven agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 39-73.
    19. Woo, Jaejoon, 2023. "Financial crises and inequality: New evidence from a panel of 17 advanced economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Schulz, Jan & Mayerhoffer, Daniel M., 2021. "A network approach to consumption," BERG Working Paper Series 173, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit variation; Income inequality; Household debt/borrowing; Monetary policy; Spatial error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:138:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.