IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cepnwp/hal-02360456.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capacity Utilization and the NAIRCU

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Bassi

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Most empirical studies provide evidence that the rate of capacity utilization is stable around a constant Non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization (NAIRCU). Nevertheless , available statistical series of the rate of capacity utilization, which is unobservable, are constructed by assuming that it is stable over time. Hence, the stability of the NAIRCU is an artificial artefact. In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the rate of capacity utilization without imposing stability constraints. Partially inspired to the Production function methodology (PFM), we estimate the parameters of a production function by imposing aggregate correlations between the rate of capacity utilization and a set of macroeconomic variables, namely investment , labor productivity and unemployment. Our results show that the NAIRCU is not a constant rate but a non-stationary time-varying trend, and that chronicle under-utilization of capacity with stable inflation is a plausible equilibrium. Hence, persistent deviations of GDP might reflect persistent shocks to capacity utilization rather than exogenous shocks to total factor productivity. As a corollary, expansionary demand policies do not necessarily create permanent inflationary pressures if the NAIRCU is below full-capacity output, namely in post-crisis periods. Abstract Most empirical studies provide evidence that the rate of capacity utilization is stable around a constant Non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization (NAIRCU). Nevertheless, available statistical series of the rate of capacity utilization, which is unobservable, are constructed by assuming that it is stable over time. Hence, the stability of the NAIRCU is an artificial artefact. In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the rate of capacity utilization without imposing stability constraints. Partially inspired to the Production function methodology (PFM), we estimate the parameters of a production function by imposing aggregate correlations between the rate of capacity utilization and a set of macroeconomic variables, namely investment, labor productivity and unemployment. Our results show that the NAIRCU is not a constant rate but a non-stationary time-varying trend, and that chronicle under-utilization of capacity with stable inflation is a plausible equilibrium. Hence, persistent deviations of GDP might reflect persistent shocks to capacity utilization rather than exogenous shocks to total factor productivity. As a corollary, expansionary demand policies do not necessarily create permanent inflationary pressures if the NAIRCU is below full-capacity output, namely in post-crisis periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Bassi, 2019. "Capacity Utilization and the NAIRCU," CEPN Working Papers hal-02360456, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-02360456
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02360456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02360456/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    3. Concetta Castiglione, 2011. "Verdoorn-Kaldor’s Law: an empirical analysis with time series data in the United States," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 1-8.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ms. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 1997/177, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. George L. Perry, 1973. "Capacity in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 701-742.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    9. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
    10. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2000/059, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Labini, Paolo Sylos, 1995. "Why the interpretation of the Cobb-Douglas production function must be radically changed," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 485-504, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federico Bassi, 2019. "Capacity Utilization and the NAIRCU," Working Papers hal-02360456, HAL.
    2. Federico Bassi, 2019. "Capacity Utilization and the NAIRCU - Evidences of Hysteresis in EU countries," CEPN Working Papers 2019-09, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    3. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària & Luis G. Hernández‐Román & Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua, 2021. "Recessions and potential GDP: The case of Mexico," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 179-195, April.
    5. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    6. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de La Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle," Post-Print hal-03389354, HAL.
    7. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k862c2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k862c2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
    11. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    12. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Philip Barrett & Sonali Das & Giacomo Magistretti & Evgenia Pugacheva & Philippe Wingender, 2023. "Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 227-242, April.
    14. Feng Zhu, 2016. "Understanding the changing equilibrium real interest rates in Asia-Pacific," BIS Working Papers 567, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    16. Patrik Barisic & Tibor Kovac, 2022. "The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 43-81.
    17. Ana Michaela ANDREI, 2014. "Using asymmetric Okun law and Phillips curve for potential output estimates: an empirical study for Romania," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2014(23), pages 6-18, December.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    20. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    21. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2024. "Scarred Consumption," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 322-355, January.
    22. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 5-33.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity utilization; NAIRCU; Potential GDP; Hysteresis; Secular stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-02360456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.