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Using asymmetric Okun law and Phillips curve for potential output estimates: an empirical study for Romania

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  • Ana Michaela ANDREI

    (Professor, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics Faculty)

Abstract

Having in view the economic crisis that Romania has crossed and the delayed effects on the macroeconomic indicators, the objective of the paper is the study of the modifications incurred on the unemployment time varying NAIRU and output gaps paths.Using some computed data in previous works, and also quarterly data from NIS Statistics and NBR statistics, in the paper it is estimated time varying NAIRU using Phillips asymmetric curve approach and Kalman Filter approach as well. The output gaps computing is based on time varying NAIRU recalculated in this article and symmetric and asymmetric dynamic Okun’s laws.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Michaela ANDREI, 2014. "Using asymmetric Okun law and Phillips curve for potential output estimates: an empirical study for Romania," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2014(23), pages 6-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rom:rampas:v:2014:y:2014:i:23:p:6-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    6. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    7. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
    8. Paul Davidson & Jan A. Kregel (ed.), 1997. "Improving the Global Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1203.
    9. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    11. Ana-Michaela Andrei & Gheorghe Oprescu & Mihai Roman & Ramona-Mihaela Păun, 2009. "Remarks On Potential Gdp Estimation In Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 12(12(541)(s), pages 245-252, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lipară Daniel & Gheorghiu Gabriela & Barbu Corina Aurora, 2018. "Is Okun’s Law Valid in Romanian Economy? An Empirical Approach of Unemployment Rate and GDP Relation from 2000 to 2018," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 279-284, December.
    2. Coffie Francis José N'GUESSAN, 2022. "L‘intensité en emploi de la croissance en Côte d’Ivoire en période d’expansion et en période de contraction," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 39-53.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential GDP; Kalman filter; Phillips curve; Okun’s law; HP filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other

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