IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gwi/wpaper/2020-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Remi Jedwab

    (George Washington University)

  • Amjad M. Khan

    (The World Bank)

  • Richard Damania

    (The World Bank)

  • Jason Russ

    (The World Bank)

  • Esha D. Zaveri

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

Since COVID-19 broke out, there has been renewed interest in understanding the economic and social dynamics of historical and more recent pandemics and epidemics, from the plagues of Antiquity to modern-day outbreaks like Ebola. These events can have significant impacts on the interplay between poverty and social cohesion, i.e. how different groups in society interact and cooperate to survive and prosper. To that effect, this survey paper provides an overview of how social responses to past pandemics and epidemics were determined by the epidemiological and non-epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks, with a particular focus on the scapegoating and persecution of minority groups, including migrants. More precisely, we discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight the cases and contexts where pandemics may lead to milder or more severe forms of scapegoating. Finally, we conclude with a summary of priorities for future research on pandemics and social cohesion and discuss the possible effects and policy implications of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Remi Jedwab & Amjad M. Khan & Richard Damania & Jason Russ & Esha D. Zaveri, 2020. "Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2020WP/JedwabIIEP2020-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    2. Johnson,Noel D. & Koyama,Mark, 2019. "Persecution and Toleration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108425025, September.
    3. Joel Mokyr & Rebecca Stein, 1996. "Science, Health, and Household Technology: The Effect of the Pasteur Revolution on Consumer Demand," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of New Goods, pages 143-206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jane G Fortson, 2011. "Mortality Risk and Human Capital Investment: The Impact of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. DJEMAI, Elodie, 2018. "Roads and the spread of HIV in Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-141.
    6. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    7. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    8. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2018. "Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1179-1209, December.
    9. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2013. "On The Theory Of Ethnic Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 161-192, January.
    10. Vojtech Bartos & Michal Bauer & Jana Cahlikova & Julie Chytilová, 2020. "Covid-19 Crisis Fuels Hostility against Foreigners," CESifo Working Paper Series 8309, CESifo.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    12. Wilde, Joshua, 2012. "How substitutable are fixed factors in production? evidence from pre-industrial England," MPRA Paper 39278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2012. "Persecution Perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Violence in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1339-1392.
    14. Esteban, Joan & Ray, Debraj, 1994. "On the Measurement of Polarization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 819-851, July.
    15. Sascha Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy & Sascha O. Becker, 2017. "Who Voted for Brexit?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 03-05, December.
    16. Emily Oster, 2012. "Routes Of Infection: Exports And Hiv Incidence In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1025-1058, October.
    17. Chin, Yoo-Mi, 2013. "Does HIV increase the risk of spousal violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 997-1006.
    18. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    19. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    20. Marco Tabellini, 2018. "Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration," Harvard Business School Working Papers 19-005, Harvard Business School, revised Apr 2019.
    21. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    22. Balmford, Ben & Bateman, Ian J. & Bolt, Katherine & Day, Brett & Ferrini, Silvia, 2019. "The value of statistical life for adults and children: Comparisons of the contingent valuation and chained approaches," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 68-84.
    23. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1345-1374, June.
    24. Kanbur, Ravi, 2007. "Poverty, Inequality and Conflict," Working Papers 126997, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    25. Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc, 2014. "Trust, Well-Being and Growth: New Evidence and Policy Implications," Post-Print hal-01169659, HAL.
    26. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 93-106.
    28. David N. Weil, 2010. "Endemic Diseases and African Economic Growth: Challenges and Policy Responses-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(suppl_3), pages 81-109, November.
    29. Samuel Cohn, 2007. "After the Black Death: labour legislation and attitudes towards labour in late‐medieval western Europe," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(3), pages 457-485, August.
    30. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1179, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    31. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    32. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Epidemics and Economics," PGDA Working Papers 0906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    33. Douglas Almond, 2006. "Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 672-712, August.
    34. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/33o86cn6qp83dot08iir97915s is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-1342, June.
    37. repec:aei:rpaper:1008563887 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2013. "Intimate Partner Violence and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers in Economics 563, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 14 Jan 2014.
    39. Patterson, K. David, 1992. "Yellow fever epidemics and mortality in the United States, 1693-1905," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 855-865, April.
    40. Mark Gersovitz, 2011. "HIV Testing: Principles and Practice," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 1-41, February.
    41. Karla Hoff & James Walsh, 2018. "The Whys of Social Exclusion: Insights from Behavioral Economics," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 1-33.
    42. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011. "A Model Of Ethnic Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 496-521, June.
    43. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2008. "On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2185-2202, December.
    44. repec:mpr:mprres:6928 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2009. "Does the Welfare State Affect Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants? Evidence across Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 295-314, May.
    46. David Card & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration Economics by George J. Borjas: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1333-1349, December.
    47. Alejandro de la Fuente & Hanan G Jacoby & Kotchikpa Gabriel Lawin, 2020. "Impact of the West African Ebola Epidemic on Agricultural Production and Rural Welfare: Evidence from Liberia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 29(5), pages 454-474.
    48. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    49. Margaret A Sheridan & Khaled Sarsour & Douglas Jutte & Mark D'Esposito & W Thomas Boyce, 2012. "The Impact of Social Disparity on Prefrontal Function in Childhood," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, April.
    50. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    51. Guido Alfani & Marco Bonetti, 2019. "A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 101-118, January.
    52. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    53. Algan, Yann & Cahuc, Pierre, 2014. "Trust, Growth, and Well-Being: New Evidence and Policy Implications," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 2, pages 49-120, Elsevier.
    54. David Cutler & Grant Miller, 2005. "The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    55. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Helen Robbins, 1928. "A Comparison of the Effects of the Black Death on the Economic Organization of France and England," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 447-447.
    57. Alejandro de la Fuente & Hanan G Jacoby & Kotchikpa Gabriel Lawin, 0. "Impact of the West African Ebola Epidemic on Agricultural Production and Rural Welfare: Evidence from Liberia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 29(5), pages 454-474.
    58. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    59. Lin, L. & Hall, B.J. & Khoe, L.C. & Bodomo, A.B., 2015. "Ebola outbreak: From the perspective of African migrants in China," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(5), pages 1-5.
    60. Hohenberg, Paul M., 2004. "The historical geography of European cities: An interpretive essay," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 67, pages 3021-3052, Elsevier.
    61. Debraj Ray & Joan Esteban, 2017. "Conflict and Development," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 263-293, September.
    62. Lee Mordechai & Merle Eisenberg & Timothy P. Newfield & Adam Izdebski & Janet E. Kay & Hendrik Poinar, 2019. "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(51), pages 25546-25554, December.
    63. Woolcock, Michael & Narayan, Deepa, 2000. "Social Capital: Implications for Development Theory, Research, and Policy," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 225-249, August.
    64. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    65. Brian Beach & Joseph P. Ferrie & Martin H. Saavedra, 2018. "Fetal Shock or Selection? The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Human Capital Development," NBER Working Papers 24725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Attila Ambrus & Erica Field & Robert Gonzalez, 2020. "Loss in the Time of Cholera: Long-Run Impact of a Disease Epidemic on the Urban Landscape," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(2), pages 475-525, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Asad & Pakrashi, Debayan & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Wang, Liang Choon, 2021. "Stigma and misconceptions in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: A field experiment in India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    2. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jedwab, Remi & Khan, Amjad M. & Russ, Jason & Zaveri, Esha D., 2021. "Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    3. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    4. Grechyna, Daryna, 2023. "Can conflicts unite a nation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    6. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Guido Alfani, 2022. "Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 3-40, March.
    8. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Panza, Laura & Swee, Eik Leong, 2023. "Fanning the flames: Rainfall shocks, inter‐ethnic income inequality, and conflict intensification in Mandate Palestine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 71-94.
    10. Jetter, Michael & Mahmood, Rafat & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Ramirez Hassan, Andres, 2020. "Explaining Post-Cold-War Civil Conflict among 17 Billion Models: The Importance of History and Religion," IZA Discussion Papers 13511, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    12. Arnstein Aassve & Guido Alfani & Francesco Gandolfi & Marco Le Moglie, 2021. "Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 840-857, April.
    13. Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Zergawu, Yitagesu-Zewdu, 2018. "The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 959-997.
    14. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2022. "Medieval cities through the lens of urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel), 2016. "Linking social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks to civil conflicts," Working Papers 2072/290744, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    16. Jetter, Michael & Mahmood, Rafat & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés, 2022. "Post-Cold War civil conflict and the role of history and religion: A stochastic search variable selection approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2021. "Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(2), pages 173-195, June.
    18. Matija Kovacic & Claudio Zoli, 2021. "Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 257-299, August.
    19. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José‐Luis Peydró & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2022. "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372, December.
    20. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Pandemics; Epidemics; Disasters; Social Cohesion; Stigmatization; Minority Persecution; Conflict; Poverty; Migration; Social Capital; Trust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2020-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kyle Renner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iigwuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.