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Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919

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  • Robert J. Barro

Abstract

A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about these effects comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. NPIs, as measured by an extension of Markel, et al. (2007), are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions on public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to average death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. One possibility is that the NPIs were not more successful in curtailing overall mortality because the average duration of each type of NPI was only around one month. Another possibility is that NPIs mainly delay deaths rather than eliminating them.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Barro, 2020. "Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919," NBER Working Papers 27049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27049
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    1. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
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    4. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality – II," Studies in Applied Economics 210, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    5. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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