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Inflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility

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  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • Fatima Kaneez
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously determined regional groupings. We find that most of inflation variability is explained by the country specific disturbance term. Nevertheless, the contribution of the global component in explaining industrialised countries’ inflation rates has increased over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph P. Byrne & Fatima Kaneez & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "Inflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 2010_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2010_09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Lee, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 347-364, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Dynamic Factor Model; Stochastic Volatility; Globalisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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