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Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?

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  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu

    (Poitiers University)

Abstract

The specialists paid a special attention to credit growth in the transitions countries due to its sharp increase during the last years. However, once the financial crisis started in 2008, the credit activity evolution reversed. Consequently, forecasting the credit trend has become a subject of interest in the context of the present financial and economic conditions, because the credit market blockage has a negative impact on economic activity revival and leads to the amplification of the uncertainty on financial markets. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the recent credit developments in Romania and to predict their future evolution. Based on the credit growth rate endogenous factors and using a stochastic simulation econometric model, we demonstrate that this economy experiences a passage from a credit boom to a severe credit crunch. The forecasting exercise results show a credit activity contraction up to the end of 2009, demolishing the expectations related to a near economic recoVery in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:62-75
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Lorna Katusiime, 2018. "Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Koranteng, Barbara & You, Kefei, 2024. "Fintech and financial stability: Evidence from spatial analysis for 25 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Foreign currency lending in Albania," MPRA Paper 79087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sadia Babar & Rashid Latief & Sumaira Ashraf & Sania Nawaz, 2019. "Financial Stability Index for the Financial Sector of Pakistan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-24, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth rate; forecasts; stochastic simulation; credit crunch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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