IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cmk/journl/y2010p33-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri)

    (Lecturer, University of Tirana, Fakulteti i EkonomisA�, Rruga e Elbasanit - Tirana, Albania)

  • Dr. Brunilda Duraj

    (Lecturer, University of Tirana, Fakulteti i EkonomisA�, Rruga e Elbasanit - Tirana, Albania)

Abstract

This paper uses an early warning model that calculates the Probability of Distress of the banking sectors of seven Western Balkan countries. The application of the model on a country level has revealed that the riskiest country in Western Balkan is Montenegro whereas the healthiest one is Serbia. Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia are characterized by moderate risk levels. We recommend that the efforts of the supervisory authorities in each country should be focused on capitalization in the log run and on the profitability and managerial quality in the short run. The enhancement of the supervisory practices integration beyond the existing Memorandum of Understanding and the creation of a centralized dataset for Balkan banking institutions are recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Dr. Brunilda Duraj, 2010. "The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 33-48, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmk:journl:y:2010:p:33-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.cea.org.mk/files/journals/1/articles/77/public/77-286-1-PB.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2009. "Accounting discretion of banks during a financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Working Papers 0912, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European countries : Dynamics of asymmetric shocks," Working Papers 0917, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Huizinga, H.P. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Accounting Discretion of Banks During a Financial Crisis," Other publications TiSEM 09764c84-fa16-45e7-942d-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Sirtaine, Sophie & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2007. "Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4281, The World Bank.
    6. Irène Andreou & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Post-Print halshs-00374148, HAL.
    7. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2009/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & John H. Boyd, 2009. "Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2009/141, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ms. María Nieto & Mr. Garry J. Schinasi, 2007. "EU Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability: Towards an Analytical Benchmark for Assessing its Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 2007/260, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Inna Golodniuk, 2005. "Financial Systems and Financial Reforms in CIS Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0306, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Gerald A. McDermott, 2004. "The Politics of Institutional Learning and Creation: Bank Crises and Supervision in East Central Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp726, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Klaus Schaeck, 2007. "How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?," IMF Working Papers 2007/275, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Huizinga, H.P. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Accounting Discretion of Banks During a Financial Crisis," Other publications TiSEM b94d0405-1ced-4aa4-870b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Berger, Allen N. & Clarke, George R.G. & Cull, Robert & Klapper, Leora & Udell, Gregory F., 2005. "Corporate governance and bank performance: A joint analysis of the static, selection, and dynamic effects of domestic, foreign, and state ownership," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2179-2221, August.
    15. Philip Turner, 2006. "The banking system in emerging economies: how much progress has been made?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The banking system in emerging economies: how much progress has been made?, volume 28, pages 1-9, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rovena Bahiti & Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Juljana Babasuli, 2011. "Impact of the Latest Financial Crises on a Bank-Based Financial System: Case of Albania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(39), pages 3-23, March.
    2. Yi-Shu Wang & Xue Jiang & Zhen-Jia-Liu, 2016. "Bank Failure Prediction Models for the Developing and Developed Countries: Identifying the Economic Value Added for Predicting Failure," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(9), pages 522-533, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    2. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    4. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    5. Calomiris, Charles W. & Nissim, Doron, 2014. "Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 400-435.
    6. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    7. David Murphy, 2012. "Maintaining Confidence," FMG Special Papers sp216, Financial Markets Group.
    8. Freixas, Xavier & Laux, Christian, 2011. "Disclosure, transparency, and market discipline," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Matej Marinc & Razvan Vlahu, 2011. "The Economic Perspective of Bank Bankruptcy Law," DNB Working Papers 310, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 191-223, December.
    11. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    12. Pinto, Inês, 2013. "Asset value management in the Portuguese real estate sector," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 86-97.
    13. Christian Laux & Christian Leuz, 2010. "Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 93-118, Winter.
    14. Fargher, Neil & Zhang, John Ziyang, 2014. "Changes in the measurement of fair value: Implications for accounting earnings," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 184-199.
    15. Michiel Bijlsma & Wim Suyker, 2008. "The credit crisis and the Dutch economy... in eight frequently asked questions," CPB Memorandum 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Nicolas Véron, 2011. "Keeping the promise of global accounting standards," Policy Briefs 575, Bruegel.
    18. Liao, Lin & Kang, Helen & Morris, Richard D. & Tang, Qingliang, 2013. "Information asymmetry of fair value accounting during the financial crisis," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 221-236.
    19. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Franz, Wolfgang & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2012. "Nach dem EU-Gipfel: Zeit für langfristige Lösungen nutzen," Special Reports / Sondergutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75379.
    20. Yun Jeong Choi & Doyeon Kim & Taeyoon Sung, 2010. "Global Crisis, Exchange Rate Response, and Economic Performance: A Story of Two Countries in East Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 25-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning system; banking sector assessment; supervisory framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmk:journl:y:2010:p:33-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marjan Nikolov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceaskmk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.