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Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system

Author

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  • Sulser, Timothy
  • Wiebe, Keith D.
  • Dunston, Shahnila
  • Cenacchi, Nicola
  • Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
  • Mason-D’Croz, Daniel
  • Robertson, Richard D.
  • Willenbockel, Dirk
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.

Abstract

This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hunger in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future, over half of them in Africa south of the Sahara. Increased investments can offset these impacts. Achieving this would require that annual investment in international agricultural research increase from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 2050. Additional water and infrastructure investments are estimated to be more expensive than agricultural R&D at about US$12.7 billion and US$10.8 billion per year, respectively, but these address key gaps to support transformation toward food system resiliency. Findings on ranges of costs and trade-offs and complementarities across SDGs will help policymakers make better-informed choices between alternative investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulser, Timothy & Wiebe, Keith D. & Dunston, Shahnila & Cenacchi, Nicola & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Willenbockel, Dirk & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2021. "Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system," Food policy reports 9780896294165, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:fprepo:9780896294165
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Inocencio, Arlene & Kikuchi, Masao & Tonosaki, Manabu & Maruyama, Atsushi & Merrey, Douglas & Sally, Hilmy & de Jong, Ijsbrand, 2007. "Costs and performance of irrigation projects: A comparison of Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions," IWMI Research Reports H036214, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    3. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wiebe, Keith D. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2021. "Climate change and agricultural development," IFPRI book chapters, in: Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world, chapter 19, pages 629-660, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard D. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marili, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    6. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel El Chami & Raffaella Santagata & Stefania Moretti & Luca Moreschi & Adriana Del Borghi & Michela Gallo, 2023. "A Life Cycle Assessment to Evaluate the Environmental Benefits of Applying the Circular Economy Model to the Fertiliser Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Leah Costlow & Anna Herforth & Timothy B. Sulser & Nicola Cenacchi & William A. Masters, 2024. "Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health," Papers 2401.01080, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Echeverria, Ruben G., 2022. "Climate finance: Funding sustainable food systems transformation," IFPRI book chapters, in: 2022 Global food policy report: Climate change and food systems, chapter 5, pages 48-57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Stads, Gert-Jan & Wiebe, Keith D. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Sulser, Timothy B. & Benfica, Rui & Reda, Fasil & Khetarpal, Ravi, 2022. "Research for the future: Investments for efficiency, sustainability, and equity," IFPRI book chapters, in: 2022 Global food policy report: Climate change and food systems, chapter 4, pages 38-47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. repec:ags:aaea22:335443 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Beveridge, Malcolm C. M. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Marwaha, Nisha & Stanley, Michele & Grisenthwaite, Robert & Phillips, Michael J., 2022. "Cattle, seaweed, and global greenhouse gas emissions," IFPRI discussion papers 2111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Benfica, Rui & Zambrano, Patricia & Chambers, Judith A. & Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamin, 2022. "Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania," IFPRI discussion papers 2107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. von Braun, Joachim & Beyene Chichaibelu, Bezawit & Laborde, David & Torero Cullen, Maximo, 2024. "Cost of Ending Hunger – Consequences of Complacency, and Financial Needs for SDG2 Achievement," Discussion Papers 343159, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

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    Keywords

    costs; investment; hunger; agriculture; agrifood systems; food security; food systems; climate change;
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