IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedrwp/10-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing default: theory works and so does policy

Author

Listed:
  • Allen C. Goodman
  • Brent C. Smith

Abstract

Using a national loan level data set we examine loan default as explained by local demographic characteristics and state level legislation that regulates foreclosure procedures and predatory lending through a hierarchical linear model. We observe significant variation in the default rate across states, with lower default levels in states with higher temporal and financial costs to lenders when controlling for loan and location conditions. The results are notable given that many of the observed loans were sold to investors in national and international markets. State level legislative influences provide a foundation for discussion of national level policy that further regulates predatory lending and financial institution foreclosure activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:10-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/2010/wp_10-10.cfm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/working_papers/2010/pdf/wp10-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xudong An & Raphael Bostic, 2008. "GSE Activity, FHA Feedback, and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 207-231, February.
    2. Keith D. Harvey & Peter J. Nigro, 2004. "Do Predatory Lending Laws Influence Mortgage Lending? An Analysis of the North Carolina Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 435-456, December.
    3. Gregory Elliehausen & Michael E. Staten, 2004. "Regulation of Subprime Mortgage Products: An Analysis of North Carolina's Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 411-433, December.
    4. Chester Foster & Robert Van Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291, September.
    5. Clauretie, Terrence M & Herzog, Thomas N, 1990. "The Effect of State Foreclosure Laws on Loan Losses: Evidence from the Mortgage Insurance Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 221-233, May.
    6. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2010. "Recourse and residential mortgage default: theory and evidence from U.S. states," Working Paper 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551, September.
    8. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    9. Rose, Morgan J., 2008. "Predatory lending practices and subprime foreclosures: Distinguishing impacts by loan category," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 13-32.
    10. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    11. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffery, 1974. "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1545-1548, December.
    12. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263, September.
    13. Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 2004. "The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-587, December.
    14. Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426, September.
    15. Kelly D. Edmiston & Roger Zalneraitis, 2007. "Rising foreclosures in the United States: a perfect storm," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 115-145.
    16. Alex O. Williams & William Beranek & James Kenkel, 1974. "Default Risk in Urban Mortgages: A Pittsburgh Prototype Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 101-112, June.
    17. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-325, August.
    18. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 1998. "Housing Market Segmentation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 121-143, June.
    19. Elliehausen, Gregory & Staten, Michael E. & Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2008. "The effect of prepayment penalties on the pricing of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 33-46.
    20. William P. Alexander & Scott D. Grimshaw & Grant R. McQueen & Barrett A. Slade, 2002. "Some Loans Are More Equal than Others: Third–Party Originations and Defaults in the Subprime Mortgage Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 667-697.
    21. Keith D. Harvey & Peter J. Nigro, 2003. "How Do Predatory Lending Laws Influence Mortgage Lending in Urban Areas? A Tale of Two Cities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 25(4), pages 479-508.
    22. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
    23. Ho, Giang & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2006. "The impact of local predatory lending laws on the flow of subprime credit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 210-228, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    2. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2015. "Effects of prepayment regulations on termination of subprime mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 445-456.
    4. Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Gregory Elliehausen, 2014. "The Economic Effects of Legal Restrictions on High-Cost Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 47-72, July.
    5. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    6. Fang, Lu & Munneke, Henry J., 2021. "A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2008. "Predatory Lending Laws and the Cost of Credit," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 175-211, June.
    8. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    9. Brent C Smith & Kenneth N. Daniels, 2018. "Unintended Consequences of Risk Based Pricing: Racial Differences in Mortgage Costs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 323-343, December.
    10. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    11. Smith, Brent C, 2011. "Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 285-298.
    12. Aidong Adam Ding & Shaonan Tian & Yan Yu & Xinlei Zhao, 2022. "Does judicial foreclosure procedure help delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 382-422, June.
    13. Giang Ho & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2007. "The varying effects of predatory lending laws on high-cost mortgage applications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jan), pages 39-60.
    14. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    15. Ioan Voicu & Marilyn Jacob & Kristopher Rengert & Irene Fang, 2012. "Subprime Loan Default Resolutions: Do They Vary Across Mortgage Products and Borrower Demographic Groups?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 939-964, November.
    16. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    17. Xudong An & Raphael W. Bostic, 2006. "Have the Affordable Housing Goals been a Shield against Subprime? Regulatory Incentives and the Extension of Mortgage Credit," Working Paper 8572, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    18. Rose, Morgan J., 2008. "Predatory lending practices and subprime foreclosures: Distinguishing impacts by loan category," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 13-32.
    19. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    20. Giang Ho & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "The impact of local predatory lending laws," Working Papers 2005-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:10-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.