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The CPI for rents: a case of understated inflation

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  • Theodore M. Crone
  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Richard Voith

Abstract

Until the end of 1977, the U.S. consumer price index for rents tended to omit rent increases when units had a change of tenants or were vacant, biasing inflation estimates downward. Beginning in 1978, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented a series of methodological changes that reduced this nonresponse bias, but substantial bias remained until 1985. The authors set up a model of nonresponse bias, parameterize it, and test it using a BLS microdata set for rents. From 1940 to 1985, the official BLS CPI-W price index for tenant rents rose 3.6 percent annually; the authors argue that it should have risen 5.0 percent annually. Rents in 1940 should be only half as much as their official relative price; this has important consequences for historical measures of rent-house-price ratios and for the growth of real consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2006. "The CPI for rents: a case of understated inflation," Working Papers 06-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:06-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Genesove, 2003. "The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
    2. Joshua H. Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2007. "Gimme shelter! rents have risen, not fallen, since World War II," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 25-33.
    2. Steven Ruggles, 2015. "Patriarchy, Power, and Pay: The Transformation of American Families, 1800–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1797-1823, December.
    3. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2004. "Hedonic estimates of the cost of housing services: rental and owner-occupied units," Working Papers 04-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2016. "Has Canadian house price growth been excessive?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1367-1400, November.
    5. Rondinelli, Concetta & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Housing rent dynamics in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 540-548.
    6. Thesia I. Garner & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Puzzling Divergence of U.S. Rents and User Costs, 1980-2004: Summary and Extensions," Working Papers 409, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    7. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.

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    Keywords

    Consumer price indexes; Rent; Inflation (Finance);
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