IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v51y2023i2p503-532.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia Gilbukh
  • Andrew Haughwout
  • Rebecca J. Landau
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

We examine the potential for the price‐to‐rent ratio to be used as a macroprudential tool. In addition to using standardized appraisal methods, appraisers could estimate the current market rent for a property. The resulting price‐to‐rent ratio would provide a useful signal for speculative pressures. We show this by estimating price‐to‐rent ratios using the American Housing Survey. The distribution of price‐to‐rent ratios shifted up dramatically during the housing boom with the 75th and 95th percentile reaching a historic peak in 2006 at 22 and 44, respectively. We propose a lending policy that incorporates the price‐to‐rent ratio to generate countercyclical loan‐to‐value ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew Haughwout & Rebecca J. Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 503-532, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:503-532
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12431
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12431?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul Willen, 2010. "Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 89-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    5. Lei Ding & Leonard Nakamura, 2016. "The Impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on Appraisal and Mortgage Outcomes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 658-690, July.
    6. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    7. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2010. "Rents Have Been Rising, Not Falling, in the Postwar Period," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 628-642, August.
    8. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2020. "On the economic impacts of constraining second home investments," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    11. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2017. "Macroprudential policy, countercyclical bank capital buffers and credit supply: evidence from the spanish dynamic provisioning experiments," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    12. Andrew F. Haughwout & Sarah Sutherland & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Negative equity and housing investment," Staff Reports 636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Hilber, Christian Albin Lukas & Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Why have house prices risen so much more than rents in superstar cities?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. David Bedoll & Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr, 2008. "The price of land in the New York metropolitan area," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Apr).
    15. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2004. "Hedonic estimates of the cost of housing services: rental and owner-occupied units," Working Papers 04-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    17. Lu Han & Chandler Lutz & Benjamin Sand & Derek Stacey & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Effects of a Targeted Financial Constraint on the Housing Market [Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3742-3788.
    18. Samuel G. Hanson & Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    19. Stephen Malpezzi & Larry Ozanne & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1987. "Microeconomic Estimates of Housing Depreciation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 63(4), pages 372-385.
    20. Van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Gabarró, Marc & Irani, Rustom & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps," EconStor Preprints 216797, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. Zohair Alam & Mr. Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Heedon Kang & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
    23. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    24. Cho, Man & Megbolugbe, Isaac F, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Property Appraisal and Mortgage Redlining," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 45-55, July.
    25. David Genesove, 2003. "The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
    26. Somerville, Tsur & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Using purchase restrictions to cool housing markets: A within-market analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    27. Guasch, J. Luis & Marshall, Robert C., 1987. "A theoretical and empirical analysis of the length of residency discount in the rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 291-311, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2021. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 203-228, August.
    2. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2024. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8096-8115, November.
    3. Andrea Ferrero & Richard Harrison & Benjamin Nelson, 2024. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 940-971.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal Mccann, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2533-2575, October.
    5. Van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Gabarró, Marc & Irani, Rustom & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps," EconStor Preprints 216797, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Pauline AVRIL & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Camélia TURCU, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2913, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2021. "The household effects of mortgage regulation," Working Papers No 07/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2023. "The leverage-liquidity trade-of mortgage regulation," Working Papers 04/2023, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    10. Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2022. "Examining macroprudential policy and its macroeconomic effects – Some new evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. repec:grz:wpaper:2012-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:grz:wpaper:2014-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chen, Yunping & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Guorong & Jiao, Dongdan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "Time-varying effect of macro-prudential policies on household credit growth: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 241-254.
    14. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    15. Matteo Benetton, 2021. "Leverage Regulation and Market Structure: A Structural Model of the U.K. Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2997-3053, December.
    16. Madeira, Carlos, 2024. "The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    18. Malovaná, Simona & Hodula, Martin & Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef, 2023. "Macroprudential policy in central banks: Integrated or separate? Survey among academics and central bankers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Hodula, Martin & Melecký, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Szabo, Milan, 2023. "Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of borrower-based limits on new mortgage lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Saha, Asish & Rooj, Debasis & Sengupta, Reshmi, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy and mortgage leverage decisions—Evidence from micro data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1430-1444.
    21. José A. Carrasco-Gallego, 2020. "Real Estate, Economic Stability and the New Macro-Financial Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    22. Lin, Xin & Zhang, Jinhong & Yu, Lina & Zhong, Qiming, 2024. "Does macroprudential policy matter for corporate green innovation? The role of financing constraints and public environmental concerns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 877-892.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:503-532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.