IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v45y2017i3p591-627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Differential Rent Changes: Mean Reversion versus the Usual Suspects

Author

Listed:
  • Randal Verbrugge
  • Alan Dorfman
  • William Johnson
  • Fred Marsh III
  • Robert Poole
  • Owen Shoemaker

Abstract

We study 2001-2004 and 2004-2007 rent growth of 18,000 rental units, ending our study prior to the Great Recession. Which variables correlate with rent growth: Location? Age? Rent level? Occupancy duration? Structure type? The answers deepen understanding of the rental market, help statistical agencies make decisions about sample stratification and substitution, and expose coverage problems. We document significant rent stickiness. Initial relative rent level is the best predictor, though mainly due to mean reversion. \"Location\" comes in second, though often not statistically significantly: the relative value of location is persistent. Age and occupancy duration are also notable. Our findings are reassuring to statistical agencies.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Randal Verbrugge & Alan Dorfman & William Johnson & Fred Marsh III & Robert Poole & Owen Shoemaker, 2017. "Determinants of Differential Rent Changes: Mean Reversion versus the Usual Suspects," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 591-627, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:591-627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/reec.2017.45.issue-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 171-201, January.
    2. Randal Verbrugge & Robert Poole, 2010. "Explaining the Rent–OER Inflation Divergence, 1999–2007," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 633-657, Winter.
    3. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2010. "Rents Have Been Rising, Not Falling, in the Postwar Period," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 628-642, August.
    4. Joshua H. Gallin & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2016. "Panel Data Estimates of Age-Rent Profiles for Rental Housing," Working Papers (Old Series) 1630, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Goodman, Jack, 2004. "Determinants of operating costs of multifamily rental housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 226-244, September.
    6. Aizcorbe, Ana M., 2014. "A Practical Guide to Price Index and Hedonic Techniques," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198702429.
    7. Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58.
    8. Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A & Nothaft, Frank E, 2003. "Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 267-285, March-May.
    9. Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006. "Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Brent W. Ambrose & N. Edward Coulson & Jiro Yoshida, 2015. "The Repeat Rent Index," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 939-950, December.
    11. David Genesove, 2003. "The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
    12. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    13. Chang, Sheng-Wen & Coulson, N. Edward, 2001. "Sources of Sectoral Employment Fluctuations in Central Cities and Suburbs: Evidence from Four Eastern U.S. Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 199-218, March.
    14. Clapp, John M. & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1998. "Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 415-437, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gallin, Joshua & Verbrugge, Randal J., 2019. "A theory of sticky rents: Search and bargaining with incomplete information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 478-519.
    2. Brent W. Ambrose & N. Edward Coulson & Jiro Yoshida, 2023. "Housing Rents and Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 975-992, June.
    3. Safiye Özge Subaşı & Tüzin Baycan, 2022. "Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on private rental housing prices in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1177-1193, October.
    4. Suzuki, Masatomo & Asami, Yasushi & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2021. "Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Kyoochul Kim, 2020. "Payment Performance and Residency Discounts in the Rental Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1168-1197, December.
    6. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Brent W. Ambrose & Moussa Diop, 2021. "Information Asymmetry, Regulations and Equilibrium Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Housing Rental Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 74-110, March.
    8. Zoutieding, Tieding, 2018. "生育率波动与土地流失对城郊家庭养老的侵蚀性影响 [The Erosion Effect of the Fertility Fluctuation and Soil Erosion on Elderly Supporting of Suburban Families]," MPRA Paper 101626, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Dec 2018.
    9. Mark Merante & Keren Mertens Horn, 2016. "Is Home Sharing Driving up Rents? Evidence from Airbnb in Boston," Working Papers 2016_03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2017. "Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 71, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    3. Gallin, Joshua & Verbrugge, Randal J., 2019. "A theory of sticky rents: Search and bargaining with incomplete information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 478-519.
    4. Robert Poole & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Explaining the Rent-OER Inflation Divergence, 1999-2006," Working Papers 410, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    5. Ofer Raz-Dror, 2019. "The Changes In Rent In Israel During The Years Of The Housing Crisis 2008–2015," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 73-116.
    6. Diewert, Erwin & Nakamura, Alice O., 2009. "Accounting for Housing in a CPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2009-19, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 12 Mar 2009.
    7. Suzuki, Masatomo & Asami, Yasushi & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2021. "Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Aysoy, Cem & Aysoy, Cevriye & Tumen, Semih, 2014. "Quantifying and explaining stickiness in housing rents: A Turkish case study with micro-level data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-74.
    10. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
    11. Molly Boesel & Shu Chen & Frank E. Nothaft, 2021. "Housing preferences during the pandemic: effect on home price, rent, and inflation measurement," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 200-211, October.
    12. John K. Ashton, 2007. "Synchronisation and Staggering of Deposit Account Interest Rate Changes," Working Papers 07-14, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia.
    13. Brian Adams & Randal Verbrugge, 2020. "Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods," Economic Working Papers 533, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    14. Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew Haughwout & Rebecca J. Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 503-532, March.
    15. Lara Loewenstein & Jason Meyer & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2024. "New-Tenant Rent Passthrough and the Future of Rent Inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(17), pages 1-10, October.
    16. O’Toole, Conor & Martinez-Cillero, Maria & Ahrens, Achim, 2021. "Price regulation, inflation, and nominal rigidity in housing rents," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 282-299, June.
    18. Marianna Kudlyak, 2012. "Housing services price inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 98(3Q), pages 185-207.
    19. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Emmanuel Dhyne, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Papers w200506, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:591-627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.