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Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS Pool: How “Ruthless” is Default?

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  • Tracey Seslen
  • William C. Wheaton

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of contemporaneous loan stress on the termination of loans in the commercial mortgage‐backed securities pool from 1992 to 2004 using a novel measure, based on changes in net operating incomes and property values at the metropolitan statistical area‐property‐type‐year level. Employing a semi‐parametric competing risks model for a variety of specifications, we find that the probability of default is extremely low even at very high levels of stress, although the coefficient estimates of greatest interest are very statistically significant. These results suggest substantial lender forbearance and are consistent with previous research that models default as a “gradual dynamic process” rather than a “ruthless” exercise once “in the money.”

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  • Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2010. "Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS Pool: How “Ruthless” is Default?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 225-255, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:225-255
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00266.x
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    1. Stephen L. Buschbom & James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Constantine Lyubimov, 2021. "Delinquencies, Default and Borrowers' Strategic Behavior toward the Modification of Commercial Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 936-967, September.
    2. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
    3. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2013. "Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 787-813, November.
    4. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2015. "What is Subordination About? Credit Risk and Subordination Levels in Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 231-253, August.
    5. McCollum, Meagan & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2023. "How ‘bad’ is renter protection for institutional investment in multifamily housing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    6. Lamont Black & Chenghuan Chu & Andrew Cohen & Joseph Nichols, 2012. "Differences Across Originators in CMBS Loan Underwriting," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 115-134, October.
    7. Andrew Felton & Joseph B Nichols, 2012. "Welcome remarks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Commercial real estate loan performance at failed US banks, volume 64, pages 19-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Lok Man Michel Tong & Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Modelling Competitive Mortgage Termination Option Strategies: Default vs Restructuring and Prepayment vs Defeasance," ERES eres2018_300, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Meagan McCollum & Stanimira Milcheva, 2018. "Multifamily Rental Housing, Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors, and Foreign Capital Flows – A ZIP Code Level Analysis," ERES eres2018_131, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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