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Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation

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  • Stefano Federico
  • Fadi Hassan
  • Veronica Rappoport

Abstract

This paper identifies a credit-supply contraction that arises endogenously after trade liberalization. Banks with loan portfolios concentrated in sectors exposed to competition from China face an increase in non-performing loans after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result, they reduce the supply of credit to firms, irrespective of the firm’s sector of operation. This cut in credit translates into lower employment, investment, and output. Through this mechanism, the financial channel amplifies the shock to firms already hit by import competition from China and passes it on to firms in sectors expected to expand upon trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2023. "Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 31111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31111
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    2. Lloyd, Simon & Reinhardt, Dennis & Sowerbutts , Rhiannon, 2023. "Financial services trade restrictions and lending from an international financial centre," Bank of England working papers 1022, Bank of England.
    3. Federico Cingano & Fadi Hassan, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1697, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Esposito, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2023. "Import Competition, Trade Credit, and Financial Frictions in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 17926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers: Evidence from the nobel peace prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Mayer, Thierry & Berthou, Antoine & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2021. "Good connections : bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 15890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler, 2022. "Trade and credit reallocation: How banks help shape comparative advantage," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 282-305, February.
    12. Izadi, Mohammad & Saadi, Vahid, 2023. "Banking Market Structure and Trade Shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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