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The 2014 Russia Shock and Its Effects on Italian Firms and Banks

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  • Stefano Federico
  • Giuseppe Marinelli
  • Francesco Palazzo

Abstract

We study how a demand shock in an export market propagates to the exporting country’s banking system. Using the dual shocks of sanctions and falling oil prices suffered by Russia in 2014, we investigate the effects on Italian firms and banks more exposed to the Russian market. This event implied a sharp decline in sales for firms with a significant share of sales to Russia, but it did not affect the overall amount of credit available to them. Banks relatively more exposed to Italian exporters to Russia cut their overall credit supply, especially vis-à-vis ex ante risky borrowers, but continued to provide credit towards firms moderately hit by the trade shock, in an attempt to let them cope with the liquidity shortfall. Our results suggest that banks mitigate trade shocks for certain hit firms, while at the same time propagate them to other firms not directly affected by the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Federico & Giuseppe Marinelli & Francesco Palazzo, 2023. "The 2014 Russia Shock and Its Effects on Italian Firms and Banks," NBER Working Papers 31171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31171
    Note: CF ITI
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stefano Pietrosanti & Edoardo Rainone, 2023. "Connecting the dots: the network nature of shocks propagation in credit markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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