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Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending

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  • Laeven, Luc
  • Popov, Alexander

Abstract

Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with a decline (increase) in bank lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in domestic (foreign) markets. This manifestation of tax arbitrage is particularly pronounced for banks with large fossil-lending exposures, suggesting a role for bank specialization. Lending to private companies in foreign markets increases relatively more, implying bank incentives to avoid public scrutiny. We also find that banks reallocate a relatively larger share of their fossil loan portfolio to countries with less strict environmental regulation and bank supervision.

Suggested Citation

  • Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2023. "Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:144:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000831
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103797
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    2. Garcia-Villegas, Salomon & Martorell, Enric, 2024. "Climate transition risk and the role of bank capital requirements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Regulatory arbitrage and loan location decisions by multinational banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Miquel-Flores, Ixart & Reghezza, Alessio & Buchetti, Bruno & Perdichizzi, Salvatore, 2024. "Greening the economy: how public-guaranteed loans influence firm-level resource allocation," Working Paper Series 2916, European Central Bank.
    5. Hyeyoon Jung & João A. C. Santos & Lee Seltzer, 2023. "U.S. Banks’ Exposures to Climate Transition Risks," Staff Reports 1058, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Matzner, Anna & Steininger, Lea, 2024. "Firms’ heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases," Working Paper Series 2958, European Central Bank.
    7. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Jasova, Martina & Loumioti, Maria & Mendicino, Caterina, 2023. "“Glossy green” banks: the disconnect between environmental disclosures and lending activities," Working Paper Series 2882, European Central Bank.
    8. Zhiyuan Li & Bing Lu & Sili Zhou, 2024. "Production Leakage: Evidence from Uncoordinated Environmental Policies," Working Papers 202413, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon taxes; Cross-border lending; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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