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Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?

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Listed:
  • David E. Altig
  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • Darryl Koehler
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Michael Leiseca
  • Ellie Terry
  • Victor Ye

Abstract

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating all major federal and state fiscal policies. We find that the average percentage increase in remaining lifetime spending under the TCJA is 1.6 percent in red states versus 1.3 percent in blue states. Among the richest 10 percent of households, this differential is larger. Rich households in red states enjoyed a 2.0 percent increase compared to a 1.2 percent increase among the rich in blue-state households. This gap is driven almost entirely by the limitation on the SALT deduction. Excluding the SALT limitation from the TCJA results in a spending gain of 2.6 percent for rich red-state households compared to 2.7 percent for rich blue-state households.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Patrick C. Higgins & Darryl Koehler & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Michael Leiseca & Ellie Terry & Victor Ye, 2019. "Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2019-07
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2019-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin S & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1987. "The Effect of Federal Tax Deductibility on State and Local Taxes and Spending," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 710-736, August.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Darryl Koehler & Manni Yu, 2017. "Is Uncle Sam Inducing the Elderly to Retire?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    3. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Victor Yifan Ye, 2017. "Simulating Business Cash Flow Taxation," NBER Working Papers 23675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Elias Ilin & Victor Ye, 2020. "The Marginal Net Taxation of Americans’ Labor Supply," NBER Working Papers 27164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Altig & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2022. "How Much Lifetime Social Security Benefits Are Americans Leaving on the Table?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 37, pages 135-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thi, Hoang Ha Nguyen & Weichenrieder, Alfons J., 2021. "C and S corporation banks: Did Trump's tax reform lead to differential effects?," SAFE Working Paper Series 328, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Erin Eidschun & Laurence Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye, 2024. "Inflation's Fiscal Impact on American Households," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Siraj G. Bawa & Nam T. Vu, 2020. "International effects of corporate tax cuts on income distribution," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 1164-1190, November.
    6. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2021. "Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 649-669, September.
    7. David E. Altig & Elias Ilin & Alexander Ruder & Ellyn Terry, 2020. "Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway," FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper 2020-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2021. "Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; elections; Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; resource distribution; federal tax reform; state and local taxes; lifecycle models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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