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Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the microfoundations of the observed asymmetric movement in aggregate unemployment rates. Using U.S. data, we find that individual labor force participation responds asymmetrically to changes in local labor market conditions, consistent with the pattern of movements in the aggregate unemployment rate. Differences in the asymmetry and sensitivity of labor force participation decisions are found across gender, age, and education groups, and these differences are used to anticipate changes in the aggregate movements as population characteristics change over time.

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  • Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariola Piłatowska & Dorota Witkowska, 2022. "Gender Segregation at Work over Business Cycle—Evidence from Selected EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Néstor Iván GONZALEZ-QUINTERO & Nancy Aireth DAZA-BAEZ & Nidia Esperanza GARAVITO-CALDERON, 2014. "Determinantes y perfiles de la participación laboral en Colombia: 2002-2013," Archivos de Economía 11788, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts, 2007. "Evidence of demand factors in the determination of the labor market intermittency penalty," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Mary Beth Walker, 2011. "To work or not to work: the economics of a mother's dilemma," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Jakob Madsen & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2008. "Are Labour Force Participation Rates Non‐Stationary? Evidence From 130 Years For G7 Countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 166-189, June.
    7. Julie Hotchkiss & M. Pitts & Mary Walker, 2011. "Labor force exit decisions of new mothers," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 397-414, September.
    8. John K. Dagsvik & Tom Kornstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2016. "Discouraged worker effects and barriers against employment for immigrant and non-immigrant women," Discussion Papers 845, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Mary Beth Walker, 2010. "Assessing the impact of education and marriage on labor market exit decisions of women," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Jean Kimmel, 2009. "Moonlighting Over The Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 754-765, October.
    11. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Mary Beth Walker, 2008. "Working with children? the probability of mothers exiting the workforce at time of birth," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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