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Smoking Czechs: Modeling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Author

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  • Karel Janda

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Martin Strobl

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main assumption of our model states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behavior as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coeffcients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Janda & Martin Strobl, 2018. "Smoking Czechs: Modeling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation," Working Papers IES 2018/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2018_01
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    smoking; tobacco; cigarettes; consumption; taxation; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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