IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ewp/wpaper/372web.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: a microsimulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Meritxell Solé

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Guadalupe Souto

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Concepció Patxot

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

Concerns about the consequences of demographic ageing on the sustainability of the pension system has led to the adoption of reforms reducing pension expenditure. However, the impact of these reforms on pension adequacy is now coming under increasing scrutiny. Taking recent Spanish reform as an example, this paper analyses the extent to which fostering pension sustainability threatens pension adequacy. Using an extension of the DyPeS behavioural microsimulation model, results show that the introduction of mechanisms linking retirement pensions to the evolution of the social security budget balance has strong and negative effects on adequacy. The gains in sustainability are mainly driven by the significant fall in the benefit ratio (average pension to average wage), worsening the relative economic position of pensioners throughout forthcoming decades, reversing the past trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto & Concepció Patxot, 2018. "Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: a microsimulation analysis," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2018/372, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ewp:wpaper:372web
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/120595
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Binswanger, Johannes & Schunk, Daniel, 2012. "What is an adequate standard of living during Retirement?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 203-222, April.
    2. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Social Security Incentives for Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 311-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Miller, Robert A, 1984. "Job Matching and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1086-1120, December.
    4. Kyrre Stensnes & Nils Martin Stølen, 2007. "Pension Reform in Norway. Microsimulating effects on government expenditures, labour supply incentives and benefit distribution," Discussion Papers 524, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2005. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 11290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:bla:ausecr:v:39:y:2006:i:3:p:273-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brady, Peter J., 2010. "Measuring retirement resource adequacy," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 235-262, April.
    8. Hielke Buddelmeyer & John Freebairn & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Evaluation of Policy Options to Encourage Welfare to Work," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    10. Oriol Roch & Manuela Bosch-Príncep & Isabel Morillo & Daniel Vilalta, 2017. "A Revision of the Revaluation Index of Spanish Pensions," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 222(3), pages 109-134, September.
    11. F. J. Fernández-Díaz & C. Patxot & G. Souto, 2013. "DYPES: A Microsimulation model for the Spanish retirement pension system," Working Papers 2013-06, FEDEA.
    12. Oriol Roch & Manuela Bosch- Príncep & Isabel Morillo & Daniel Vilalta, 2015. "A revision of the revaluation index of Spanish pensions," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2015/322, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 153-170, March.
    14. David A. Wise, 1990. "Issues in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise90-1.
    15. Chia, Ngee Choon & Tsui, Albert K. C., 2003. "Life annuities of compulsory savings and income adequacy of the elderly in Singapore," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 41-65, March.
    16. Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi, 2006. "LABORsim: An Agent-Based Microsimulation of Labour Supply – An Application to Italy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 63-88, February.
    17. Knoef, Marike & Been, Jim & Alessie, Rob & Caminada, Koen & Goudswaard, Kees & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2016. "Measuring retirement savings adequacy: developing a multi-pillar approach in the Netherlands," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 55-89, January.
    18. Raquel Vegas Sánchez & Isabel Argimón & Marta Botella & Clara González, 2013. "Old age pensions and retirement in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 273-307, August.
    19. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 499-578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
    22. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2010. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 968-979, September.
    23. Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7336.
    24. Angel de la Fuente & Miguel Angel García Díaz & Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2018. "La salud financiera del sistema público de pensiones español. Un análisis retrospectivo," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2018-05, FEDEA.
    25. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
    26. repec:bla:labour:v:17:y:2003:i:specialissue:p:139-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, 2017. "Medidas para restaurar (o no) la sostenibilidad financiera de las pensiones," Policy Papers 2017-04, FEDEA.
    28. Carlo Bianchi & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro A. Vagliasindi, 2003. "Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(s1), pages 139-173, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto & Martin Spielauer, 2018. "The Impact of the Retirement Decision and Demographics on Pension Sustainability: A Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 84-108.
    2. Raquel Vegas Sánchez & Isabel Argimón & Marta Botella & Clara González, 2013. "Old age pensions and retirement in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 273-307, August.
    3. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2012. "The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 718-728.
    4. George‐Levi Gayle & Limor Golan & Mehmet A. Soytas, 2018. "Estimation of dynastic life‐cycle discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1195-1241, November.
    5. Gayle, George-Levi & Golan, Limor & Soytas, Mehmet A., 2022. "What is the source of the intergenerational correlation in earnings?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 24-45.
    6. Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
    7. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-596, May.
    8. Peter Arcidiacono & Holger Sieg & Frank Sloan, 2007. "Living Rationally Under The Volcano? An Empirical Analysis Of Heavy Drinking And Smoking," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 37-65, February.
    9. Arthur Charpentier & Romuald Élie & Carl Remlinger, 2023. "Reinforcement Learning in Economics and Finance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 425-462, June.
    10. Arcidiacono, Peter & Miller, Robert A., 2020. "Identifying dynamic discrete choice models off short panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 473-485.
    11. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul & Souza-Rodrigues, Edouardo, 2015. "Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use," TSE Working Papers 15-596, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Fraikin, Anne-Lore, 2022. "The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    13. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 28-58, March.
    14. Barbara Hanel & Regina Riphahn, 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 009, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    15. Nikhil Agarwal & Itai Ashlagi & Michael A. Rees & Paulo Somaini & Daniel Waldinger, 2021. "Equilibrium Allocations Under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence From Deceased Donor Kidneys," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 37-76, January.
    16. Urena Serulle, Nayel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2017. "The optimal time to evacuate: A behavioral dynamic model on Louisiana resident data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 447-463.
    17. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September.
    18. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    19. Giesecke, Matthias, 2014. "Actuarial Adjustments, Retirement Behaviour and Worker Heterogeneity," Ruhr Economic Papers 490, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Coile Courtney, 2004. "Retirement Incentives and Couples' Retirement Decisions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension adequacy; behavioural microsimulation; pension system reforms; pension sustainability; Spain.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ewp:wpaper:372web. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Barcelona School of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.