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Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing

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  • Carlo Bianchi
  • Marzia Romanelli
  • Pietro A. Vagliasindi

Abstract

A few years after the introduction of the Amato and Dini laws, a renewed debate on reforming the Italian pension system and on modifying its structure and technical parameters is taking place. The present work simulates individual reactions to systemic changes, distinguishing among the different typologies of workers the categories of dependent (private and public) and self‐employed ones. This approach allows us to perform a general micro‐analysis of the effects of past reforms on family pension income distribution and average individual pension benefits. Furthermore, it makes it possible to assess the consequences of legislator's choices such as the indexation of the lowest pensions (‘assegni sociali’ and ‘pensioni integrate al minimo’) to wages or to inflation. Finally, a Monte Carlo analysis projects future inequality and poverty trends with a remarkable accuracy and allows to verify the robustness of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Bianchi & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro A. Vagliasindi, 2003. "Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(s1), pages 139-173, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:17:y:2003:i:s1:p:139-173
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9914.17.specialissue.6
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    1. Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto & Concepció Patxot, 2019. "Sustainability and Adequacy of the Spanish Pension System after the 2013 Reform: A Microsimulation Analysis," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 228(1), pages 109-150, March.
    2. Margherita Borella & Flavia Coda Moscarola, 2006. "Distributive Properties of Pensions Systems: A Simulation of the Italian Transition from Defined Benefit to Notional Defined Contribution," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(1), pages 95-126, May.
    3. Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto & Martin Spielauer, 2018. "The Impact of the Retirement Decision and Demographics on Pension Sustainability: A Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(2), pages 84-108.

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