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Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality?

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  • Sergey Ivashchenko

Abstract

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: strong near-rational expectations (SNRE) and weak near-rational expectations (WNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model is estimated with the RE, the SNRE and the WNRE. It is estimated with and without observed from the surveys expectations. The quality of out-of-sample forecasts is estimated. It is shown that near-rational concept produce the same advantages as learning without its disadvantages. However, the DSGE model with the RE and the observed expectations with measurement errors can produce results that only slightly worse than with the WNRE. The influence of the observed expectations on the forecasting quality is analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality?," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/06, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec2014_06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; out of sample forecasts; survey expectations; near-rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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