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Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area

Author

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  • Smets, Frank
  • Warne, Anders
  • Wouters, Raf

Abstract

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated over the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model and a random walk. JEL Classification: E24, E31, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2013. "Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1571, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131571
    Note: 58657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fritz Breuss, 2018. "Would DSGE Models Have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 105-126, April.
    3. Corbo, Vesna & Strid, Ingvar, 2020. "MAJA: A two-region DSGE model for Sweden and its main trading partners," Working Paper Series 391, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Thierry BETTI & Giuseppe DIANA, 2015. "Spillover effects in a monetary union: Why fiscal policy instruments matter," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2015-01, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    8. Thierry Betti, 2014. "Assessing The Effects of Public Expenditure Shocks on the Labor Market in the Euro-Area," Working Papers of BETA 2014-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; DSGE model; estimated New Keynesian model; macroeconomic forecasting; real-time data; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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