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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Author

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  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Rubaszek, Michał
  • Skrzypczyński, Paweł

Abstract

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bayesian VARs and VARs using priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms BVARs and DSGE-VARs. Compared to the SPF, the DSGE model generates better output forecasts at longer horizons, but less accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, D58, E17

Suggested Citation

  • Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał & Skrzypczyński, Paweł, 2009. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test," Working Paper Series 1110, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091110
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; DSGE; forecasting; real-time data; SPF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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