Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?," Working Papers 201655, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality?," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/06, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2017/04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
References listed on IDEAS
- Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012.
"Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
- Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Learning in an Estimated Medium-Scale DSGE Model," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp396, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
- Lombardo, Giovanni & Vestin, David, 2008.
"Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 275-279, August.
- Vestin, David & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2007. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing assumptions," Working Paper Series 770, European Central Bank.
- Arturo Ormeño & Krisztina Molnár, 2015.
"Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 673-699, June.
- Ormeno, Arturo & Molnar, Krisztina, 2014. "Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2014, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013.
"DSGE Model-Based Forecasting,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140,
Elsevier.
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004.
"Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Uribe, MartÃn & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabio Milani, 2012.
"The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012.
"Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 253-288,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012. "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Working Papers 111212, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010.
"How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
- Gürkaynak, Refet & Edge, Rochelle, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2017.
"Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?,"
Journal of Economics and Econometrics,
Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-27.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far Are Surveys from Rationality?," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-06/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?," Working Papers 201655, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2017/04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015.
"Forecasting using DSGE models with financial frictions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-19.
- Michał Rubaszek & Marcin Kolasa, 2013. "Forecasting with DSGE models with financial frictions," EcoMod2013 5100, EcoMod.
- Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2014. "Forecasting with DSGE models with financial frictions," Dynare Working Papers 40, CEPREMAP.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Ivashchenko, S., 2013.
"Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms,"
Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2013/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017.
"Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 322-332.
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2015. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2015.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017. "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 577, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2016. "Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 22615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013.
"Forecasting and Policy Making,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325,
Elsevier.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Poledna, Sebastian & Miess, Michael Gregor & Hommes, Cars & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Çekin, Semih Emre & Ivashchenko, Sergey & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024.
"Real-time forecast of DSGE models with time-varying volatility in GARCH form,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
- Sergey Ivashchenko & Semih Emre Cekin & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "Real-Time Forecast of DSGE Models with Time-Varying Volatility in GARCH Form," Working Papers 202204, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rubaszek, Michał, 2021.
"Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 531-546.
- Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2024. "Dynamic Sparse Restricted Perceptions Equilibria," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp792, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Linde, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016.
"Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Bayesian Local Likelihood Method for Modelling Parameter Time Variation in DSGE Models," Working Papers 770, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Solis-Garcia, Mario, 2017. "Yes we can! Teaching DSGE models to undergraduate students," MPRA Paper 81754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021.
"Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
- Di Pace, Frederico & Mitra, Kaushik & Zhang, Shoujian, 2016. "Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics," Bank of England working papers 633, Bank of England.
- Chou, Jenyu & Easaw, Joshy & Minford, Patrick, 2023.
"Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modeling? An empirical investigation,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
- Chou, Jenyu & Easaw, Joshy & Minford, Patrick, 2021. "Does Inattentiveness Matter for DSGE Modelling? An Empirical Investigation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/35, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2018. "Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
More about this item
Keywords
DSGE; out-of-sample forecasts; survey expectations; near-rational expectations.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:60:y:2017:i:1:p:1-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia van Hove (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeriibe.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.