IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eui/euiwps/eco2006-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Mertens

Abstract

A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic terms including the broken trends are removed first by a GLS procedure and a likelihood ratio type test is applied to the adjusted series. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived and it is shown by a Monte Carlo experiment that the test has better small sample properties in many cases than a corresponding Gaussian likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2006/34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cadmus.iue.it/dspace/bitstream/1814/6306/1/ECO_2006_29.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "Determining p-values for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-39, January.
    2. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Trenkler, Carsten, 2006. "Break Date Estimation For Var Processes With Level Shift With An Application To Cointegration Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 15-68, February.
    4. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    5. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Local Power Of Likelihood Ratio Tests For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 50-78, February.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    9. D'Adda, Carlo & Scorcu, Antonello E., 2003. "On the time stability of the output-capital ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1175-1189, December.
    10. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:5:p:573-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
    12. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maral Kichian, 2012. "Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada," Staff Working Papers 12-33, Bank of Canada.
    2. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2009. "Regulation and the Neo‐Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 799-807, June.
    3. Lenno UUSKÜLA, 2008. "Limited Participation or Sticky Prices? New Evidence from Firm Entry and Failures," EcoMod2008 23800147, EcoMod.
    4. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 255-266, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 331-358, March.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-067 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    4. Enzo Weber, 2009. "Macroeconomic Integration in Asia-Pacific: Common Stochastic Trends and Business Cycle Coherence," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 84-106, May-July.
    5. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Common and uncommon sources of growth in Asia Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 20-36, March.
    6. Enzo Weber, 2012. "Regional and outward economic integration in South-East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1271-1283, April.
    7. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
    8. Trenkler, Carsten, 2009. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests With A Prior Adjustment For Deterministic Terms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 243-269, February.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2014. "Transmission effects in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from South-Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 298-311.
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-064 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tomasz Jędrzejowicz & Kamila Sławińska, 2014. "Shifting from Labor to Consumption Taxes: The Impact on Tax Revenue Volatility," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 81-101.
    14. Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    15. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    16. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models: Multivariate case," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 83-106.
    17. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2003. "Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 201-229, April.
    18. Håvard Hungnes, 2010. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 551-565, August.
    19. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.
    20. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
    21. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    22. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    23. Arsova, Antonia & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2021. "A panel cointegrating rank test with structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 107-129.
    24. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor & Carsten Trenkler, 2013. "Bootstrap Cointegration Rank Testing: The Role of Deterministic Variables and Initial Values in the Bootstrap Recursion," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 814-847, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; structural break; vector autoregressive process; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2006/34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cécile Brière (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiueit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.