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Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with level shift and trend break

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  • Trenkler, Carsten
  • Saikkonen, Pentti
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut

Abstract

A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic terms including the broken trends are removed first by a GLS procedure and a likelihood ratio type test is applied to the adjusted series. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived and it is shown by a Monte Carlo experiment that the test has better small sample properties in many cases than a corresponding Gaussian likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank.

Suggested Citation

  • Trenkler, Carsten & Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2006. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with level shift and trend break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-067, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2006-067
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    1. Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "Determining p-values for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-39, January.
    2. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
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    11. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2004. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 647-662, March.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    4. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    5. Maxym Chaban, 2010. "Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 3023-3037.
    6. Michał Majsterek & Emilia Gosińska, 2020. "Structural Change in the Deterministic and Stochastic Part of VECM. I(1) and I(2) Case," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 317-345, December.
    7. Léonore Raguideau-Hannotin, 2021. "Monetary autonomy of CESEE countries and nominal convergence in EMU: a cointegration analysis with structural breaks," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2016. "Eurozone's Leader and its Followers: Are their Markets Integrated Enough?," Working Papers 1607, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.
    10. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2017. "Competitiveness divergence in the Eurozone: The need for symmetric adjustment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 942-962.
    11. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    12. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2014. "Transmission effects in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from South-Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 298-311.
    13. Klemens Hauzenberger & Robert Stehrer, 2010. "An Empirical Characterization of Redistribution Shocks and Output Dynamics," wiiw Working Papers 68, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    14. Lindback, Morten & Osmundsen, Petter & Øglend, Atle, 2013. "Shale Gas and the Relationship between U.S. Natural Gas, Liquified Petroleum Gases and Oil Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/5, University of Stavanger.
    15. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models: Multivariate case," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 83-106.
    16. Arsova, Antonia & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2021. "A panel cointegrating rank test with structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 107-129.
    17. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    18. Razvan Pascalau & Junsoo Lee & Saban Nazlioglu & Yan (Olivia) Lu, 2022. "Johansen‐type cointegration tests with a Fourier function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 828-852, September.
    19. Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2008. "Comparison of Panel Cointegration Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(6), pages 1-20.
    20. Emilia Gosińska & Aleksander Welfe, 2022. "The Cointegrated VAR Model with Deterministic Structural Breaks," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 14(3), pages 335-350, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; structural break; vector autoregressive process; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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