IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v45y2018icp245-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Can-Zhong
  • Sun, Bo-Yi

Abstract

The paper firstly studies the static tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index and several financial markets (Brent Oil, CDS, VIX, SP500 and UK EPU) with Copula models. The results show significant negative upper tail dependence between the EPU index and the SP500 index in most years, but also show positive upper tail dependence during the 2016 period. Further, the negative tail dependence area between EPU and CDS also demonstrates that higher economic policy uncertainty may reduce real risk premium. Finally, based on Markov time-varying Copula functions, the dynamic time-varying structures between the EPU index and indexes including SP500, CDS, VIX and UK EPU indexes are studied. The significant regime switching characteristic is shown between the EPU index and the UK EPU index.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:245-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940817303637
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2018.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    2. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    5. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    8. Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dakhlaoui, Imen & Aloui, Chaker, 2016. "The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 141-157.
    12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    13. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    14. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2010. "Product Market Synergies and Competition in Mergers and Acquisitions: A Text-Based Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3773-3811, October.
    15. Li, Xiao-Ming & Peng, Lu, 2017. "US economic policy uncertainty and co-movements between Chinese and US stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    16. Aastveit, Knut Are & Natvik, Gisle James & Sola, Sergio, 2017. "Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 50-67.
    17. Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Causality Between Us Economic Policy and Equity Market Uncertainties: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Tests," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 225-246, November.
    18. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    19. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 35-71, January.
    20. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    21. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-1155, December.
    22. Silva Filho, Osvaldo Candido da & Ziegelmann, Flavio Augusto & Dueker, Michael J., 2012. "Modeling dependence dynamics through copulas with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 346-356.
    23. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    24. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
    25. Kido, Yosuke, 2016. "On the link between the US economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 49-52.
    26. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
    27. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ali, Sajid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty and investors sentiment predict commodities returns and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 208-218.
    28. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    29. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2015. "The power of print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-28.
    30. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    31. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André, 2015. "Dynamic Co-movements between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 53-60, January.
    32. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    33. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    34. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    35. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    36. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Avik Sinha & Arshian Sharif & Arnab Adhikari & Ankit Sharma, 2022. "Dependence structure between Indian financial market and energy commodities: a cross-quantilogram based evidence," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 257-287, June.
    2. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Riadh El Abed & Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2024. "Time Frequency and Co-movements between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Precious Metals and Agricultural Prices: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis and Bootstrap Rolling Window Granger Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 546-561, March.
    4. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Alkhazali, Osamah M. & Gleason, Kimberley & Yeap, Xiu Wei, 2024. "Connectedness and economic policy uncertainty spillovers to the ASEAN stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 167-186.
    5. Zhou, Deheng & Siddik, Abu Bakkar & Guo, Lili & Li, Houjian, 2023. "Dynamic relationship among climate policy uncertainty, oil price and renewable energy consumption—findings from TVP-SV-VAR approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 722-732.
    6. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Weiyan & Hau, Liya & Chen, Qitong, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Wu, Hao & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Fei & Mao, Weifang, 2023. "How does economic policy uncertainty drive time–frequency connectedness across commodity and financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Yiwen & Ren, Yinghua & Xing, Zhanming & Hau, Liya, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and dependence structure between crude oil, EPU and Chinese industry stock: Evidence from multiscale quantile perspectives," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Jiang, Cuixia & Ding, Xiaoyi & Xu, Qifa & Tong, Yongbo, 2020. "A TVM-Copula-MIDAS-GARCH model with applications to VaR-based portfolio selection," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Yao, Can-Zhong & Liu, Cheng & Ju, Wei-Jia, 2020. "Multifractal analysis of the WTI crude oil market, US stock market and EPU," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    11. Ranajit Kumar Bairagi, 2022. "Dynamic Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Australian Stock Market: An Intercontinental Evidence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 64-91, March.
    12. Su, Zhi & Fang, Tong & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Understanding stock market volatility: What is the role of U.S. uncertainty?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 582-590.
    13. Hu, Genhua & Fan, Gang-Zhi, 2022. "Empirical evidence of risk contagion across regional housing markets in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Tao, Ran & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "Does economic and climate policy uncertainty matter the oil market?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Whelsy Boungou & Francis Osei-Tutu & Alhonita Yatié & Amara Zongo, 2022. "The Ukraine-Russia war and systemic financial stress," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1203-1220.
    17. Bai, Lan & Zhang, Xuhui & Liu, Yuntong & Wang, Qian, 2019. "Economic risk contagion among major economies: New evidence from EPU spillover analysis in time and frequency domains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    18. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    19. Sheng Cheng & Wei Liu & Qisheng Jiang & Yan Cao, 2023. "Multi–Scale Risk Connectedness Between Economic Policy Uncertainty of China and Global Oil Prices in Time–Frequency Domains," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1593-1616, April.
    20. Whelsy Boungou & Francis Osei-Tutu & Amara Zongo & Alhonita Yatié, 2022. "The Ukraine-Russia war and systemic financial stress," Post-Print hal-04745826, HAL.
    21. Yingting Yi & Jiangshui Luo & Michael Wübbenhorst, 2020. "Research on political instability, uncertainty and risk during 1953–2019: a scientometric review," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(2), pages 1051-1076, May.
    22. Zeng, Qing & Tang, Yusui & Yang, Hua & Zhang, Xi, 2024. "Stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty: New insight into a dynamic threshold mixed-frequency model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    4. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    6. Hu, Zhijun & Kutan, Ali M. & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2018. "Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market, industry, and individual stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 207-220.
    7. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Batabyal, Sourav & Killins, Robert, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence from Canada," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Jing Yuan & Yajing Dong & Weijie Zhai & Zongwu Cai, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty: Cross-Country Linkages and Spillover Effects on Economic Development in Some Belt and Road Countries," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202110, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2021.
    13. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    15. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    16. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Boarelli, Sofia & Vu, Thi Huyen Chi, 2019. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 377-392.
    18. Muhammad Asif Khan & Masood Ahmed & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "US Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Nexus Revisited through Dynamic ARDL Simulation and Threshold Modelling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-20, November.
    19. Grossmann, Axel & Ngo, Thanh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and ADR mispricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    20. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:245-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.