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Do well managed firms make better forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Takafumi Kawakubo
  • Charlotte Meng
  • Paul Mizen
  • Rebecca Riley
  • Tatsuro Senga
  • John Van Reenen

Abstract

We link a new UK management survey covering 8,000 firms to panel data on productivity in manufacturing and services. There is a large variation in management practices, which are highly correlated with productivity, profitability and size. Uniquely, the survey collects firms' micro forecasts of their own sales and also macro forecasts of GDP. We find that better managed firms make more accurate micro and macro forecasts, even after controlling for their size, age, industry and many other factors. We also show better managed firms appear aware that their forecasts are more accurate, with lower subjective uncertainty around central values. These stylized facts suggest that one reason for the superior performance of better managed firms is that they knowingly make more accurate forecasts, enabling them to make superior operational and strategic choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Bloom & Takafumi Kawakubo & Charlotte Meng & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen, 2022. "Do well managed firms make better forecasts?," POID Working Papers 023, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:poidwp:023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
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    5. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1351-1408.
    7. Daniela Scur & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen & Renata Lemos & Nicholas Bloom, 2021. "The World Management Survey at 18: lessons and the way forward," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 231-258.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Brian Lucking & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta Eksten, 2020. "Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-181, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    11. Tanaka, Mari & Bloom, Nicholas & David, Joel M. & Koga, Maiko, 2020. "Firm performance and macro forecast accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 26-41.
    12. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    13. Buffington, Catherine & Foster, Lucia & Jarmin, Ron & Ohlmacher, Scott & Ohlmacher, Scott, 2017. "The management and organizational practices survey (MOPS): An overview1," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 1, pages 1-26.
    14. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    15. Nicholas Bloom & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lucia Foster & Ron Jarmin & Megha Patnaik & Itay Saporta-Eksten & John Van Reenen, 2019. "What Drives Differences in Management Practices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1648-1683, May.
    16. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    17. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
    18. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
    19. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Gortz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2024. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data with Panel Data Structure," CAMA Working Papers 2024-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Scur, Daniela, 2024. "Organizational capacity and profit shifting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Norris Keiller, Agnes & de Paula, Aureo & Van Reenen, John, 2024. "Production function estimation using subjective expectations data," CEPR Discussion Papers 19259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    5. Imani, Yusuke & Ohyama, Atsushi, 2022. "The Roles of Structured Management in the Formation of Transactional Relationships," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series E-2021-07, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
    7. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Suss, Joel & Hughes, Adam, 2023. "Bank expectations and prudential outcomes," Bank of England working papers 1035, Bank of England.
    9. Binz, Oliver & Ferracuti, Elia & Joos, Peter, 2023. "Investment, inflation, and the role of internal information systems as a transmission channel," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    management; productivity; expectations; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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