IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1721.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The race to solve the sustainable transport problem via carbon-neutral synthetic fuels and battery electric vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • Ilkka Hannula

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland LtdVTT, Finland)

  • David M Reiner

    (EPRG, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Carbon-neutral synthetic fuels (CNSFs) could offer sustainable alternatives to petroleum distillates that currently dominate the transportation sector, and address the challenge of decarbonising the fuel mix. CNSFs can be divided into synthetic biofuels and 'electrofuels' produced from CO2 and water with electricity. We provide a framework for comparing CNSFs to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as alternatives to reduce vehicle emissions. Currently, all three options are significantly more expensive than conventional vehicles using fossil fuels, and would require carbon prices in excess of $250/tCO2 or oil prices in excess of $150/bbl to become competitive. BEVs are emerging as a competitive option for short distances, but their competitiveness quickly deteriorates at higher ranges where synthetic biofuels are a lower-cost option. For electrofuels to be viable, the challenge is not simply technological learning, but access to a low-cost ultra-low-carbon electric power system, or to low-carbon electric generators with high annual availability.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ilkka Hannula & David M Reiner, 2017. "The race to solve the sustainable transport problem via carbon-neutral synthetic fuels and battery electric vehicles," Working Papers EPRG 1721, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/eprg-wp1721.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. O. Schmidt & A. Hawkes & A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, 2017. "The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    2. Haarlemmer, Geert & Boissonnet, Guillaume & Peduzzi, Emanuela & Setier, Pierre-Alexandre, 2014. "Investment and production costs of synthetic fuels – A literature survey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 667-676.
    3. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    4. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
    5. Newbery, David & Strbac, Goran, 2016. "What is needed for battery electric vehicles to become socially cost competitive?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Koponen, Kati & Hannula, Ilkka, 2017. "GHG emission balances and prospects of hydrogen enhanced synthetic biofuels from solid biomass in the European context," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 106-118.
    7. Bruhn, Thomas & Naims, Henriette & Olfe-Kräutlein, Barbara, 2016. "Separating the debate on CO2 utilisation from carbon capture and storage," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 38-43.
    8. Daniel L. Sanchez & Daniel M. Kammen, 2016. "A commercialization strategy for carbon-negative energy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, January.
    9. Thomas Covert & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2016. "Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 117-138, Winter.
    10. Neil Savage, 2011. "Fuel options: The ideal biofuel," Nature, Nature, vol. 474(7352), pages 9-11, June.
    11. Mohr, Alison & Raman, Sujatha, 2013. "Lessons from first generation biofuels and implications for the sustainability appraisal of second generation biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 114-122.
    12. Louise Staffas & Mathias Gustavsson & Kes McCormick, 2013. "Strategies and Policies for the Bioeconomy and Bio-Based Economy: An Analysis of Official National Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(6), pages 1-19, June.
    13. Franke, Thomas & Krems, Josef F., 2013. "What drives range preferences in electric vehicle users?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 56-62.
    14. Hannula, Ilkka, 2016. "Hydrogen enhancement potential of synthetic biofuels manufacture in the European context: A techno-economic assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 199-212.
    15. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    16. Brynolf, Selma & Taljegard, Maria & Grahn, Maria & Hansson, Julia, 2018. "Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1887-1905.
    17. Zachary A. Needell & James McNerney & Michael T. Chang & Jessika E. Trancik, 2016. "Potential for widespread electrification of personal vehicle travel in the United States," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 1-7, September.
    18. Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson, 2015. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 329-332, April.
    19. Niall Mac Dowell & Paul S. Fennell & Nilay Shah & Geoffrey C. Maitland, 2017. "The role of CO2 capture and utilization in mitigating climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 243-249, April.
    20. Noel Melton & Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, 2016. "Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(3), pages 1-10, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    2. Stefan Arens & Sunke Schlüters & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2020. "Sustainable Residential Energy Supply: A Literature Review-Based Morphological Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
    4. Onarheim, Kristin & Hannula, Ilkka & Solantausta, Yrjö, 2020. "Hydrogen enhanced biofuels for transport via fast pyrolysis of biomass: A conceptual assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Comello, Stephen & Glenk, Gunther & Reichelstein, Stefan, 2021. "Transitioning to clean energy transportation services: Life-cycle cost analysis for vehicle fleets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Andrew William Ruttinger & Miyuru Kannangara & Jalil Shadbahr & Phil De Luna & Farid Bensebaa, 2021. "How CO 2 -to-Diesel Technology Could Help Reach Net-Zero Emissions Targets: A Canadian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Yang, Chen, 2022. "Running battery electric vehicles with extended range: Coupling cost and energy analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    8. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    9. Paulo Rotella Junior & Luiz Célio Souza Rocha & Sandra Naomi Morioka & Ivan Bolis & Gianfranco Chicco & Andrea Mazza & Karel Janda, 2021. "Economic Analysis of the Investments in Battery Energy Storage Systems: Review and Current Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, April.
    10. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Lane, Blake & Kinnon, Michael Mac & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2022. "Deployment planning tool for environmentally sensitive heavy-duty vehicles and fueling infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Toktarova, Alla & Walter, Viktor & Göransson, Lisa & Johnsson, Filip, 2022. "Interaction between electrified steel production and the north European electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    13. Kim, Seokyoung & Dodds, Paul E. & Butnar, Isabela, 2024. "Technoeconomic characterisation of low-carbon liquid hydrocarbons production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    14. Helm, Carsten & Mier, Mathias, 2021. "Steering the energy transition in a world of intermittent electricity supply: Optimal subsidies and taxes for renewables and storage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    16. Han, Xuejiao & Garrison, Jared & Hug, Gabriela, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of PV-battery systems in Switzerland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    19. Korberg, Andrei David & Skov, Iva Ridjan & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2020. "The role of biogas and biogas-derived fuels in a 100% renewable energy system in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    20. Gulagi, Ashish & Ram, Manish & Solomon, A.A. & Khan, Musharof & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 899-920.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon-neutral synthetic fuels; electrofuels; advanced biofuels; battery electric vehicles; low-carbon transportation alternatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ruth Newman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jicamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.