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Fund liquidation, self-selection and look-ahead bias in the hedge fund industry

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  • ter Horst, J.R.
  • Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

Abstract

A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases. In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentangle look-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due to fund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarily report their information to data vendors and may decide to stop doing so. By extending existing methodology, we analyze persistence in hedge fund performance over the period 1994-2000, taking into account the above biases. The results show that look-ahead biases due to liquidation and self-selection enforce each other and may lead to overestimating expected returns by as much as 8% per year. Overall, the results are consistent with positive persistence in hedge fund returns at horizons of two and four quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • ter Horst, J.R. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Fund liquidation, self-selection and look-ahead bias in the hedge fund industry," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-104-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:1822
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    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
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    8. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & Verbeek, Marno, 2001. "Eliminating look-ahead bias in evaluating persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 345-373, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2010. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance: Relevance, Significance, and Methodical Differences," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 441-474.
    2. Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022. "Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
    3. Chen, Honghui & Kumar, Alok & Lu, Yan & Singh, Ajai, 2022. "Do Hedge Fund Managers Understand Politics? Political Sensitivity and Investment Skill," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Ling, Yun & Satchell, Stephen & Yao, Juan, 2023. "Decreasing returns to scale and skill in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Hodder, James E. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Kolokolova, Olga, 2014. "Recovering Delisting Returns of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 797-815, June.
    6. Judy Qiu & Leilei Tang & Ingo Walter, 2018. "Hedge fund incentives, management commitment and survivorship," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 115-142, May.
    7. Vikas Agarwal & Vyacheslav Fos & Wei Jiang, 2013. "Inferring Reporting-Related Biases in Hedge Fund Databases from Hedge Fund Equity Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1271-1289, June.
    8. Agarwal, Vikas & Fos, Vyacheslav & Jiang, Wei, 2012. "Inferring reporting biases in hedge fund databases from hedge fund equity holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Gilles Daniel & Didier Sornette & Peter Wohrmann, 2008. "Look-Ahead Benchmark Bias in Portfolio Performance Evaluation," Papers 0810.1922, arXiv.org.
    10. Faff, Robert W. & Parwada, Jerry T. & Tan, Eric K.M., 2019. "Did connected hedge funds benefit from bank bailouts during the financial crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    12. Hodder, James E. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Kolokolova, Olga, 2008. "Recovering delisting returns of hedge funds," CoFE Discussion Papers 08/09, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    13. Martin Rohleder, 2015. "The Relation between Past Flows and Future Performance: Simple Investment Strategies in the Mutual Fund Sector," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Hong, Xin & Zhuang, Zhuang & Kang, Di & Wang, Zhibin, 2019. "Do corporate site visits impact hedge fund performance?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 113-128.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; look-ahead bias; performance persistence; self-selection; survival;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics

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