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The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias

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  • Darryll Hendricks
  • Jayendu Patel
  • Richard Zeckhauser

Abstract

Performance may enhance survival probability. When it does, the induced lack of randomness challenges robust and unbiased inference. If survivors are sorted into two groups based on past performance, spurious persistence has been demonstrated if variance in performance is heterogeneous. However, as we show both theoretically and with simulations, if performance is categorized finely, the spurious persistence will be J - shaped; that is, at the bottom better performance in one period "predicts" worse performance for another period. We propose a simple t - test applied to the quadratic coefficient in a regression to distinguish between a spurious J - shape and monotonic patterns. Mutual funds, our example, exhibit the monotonically increasing pattern produced by true performance persistence. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:2:p:161-166
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    Cited by:

    1. Collinet, Lance & Firer, Colin, 2003. "Characterising persistence of performance amongst South African general equity unit trusts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 523-538, December.
    2. Ter Horst, J.R. & Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1998. "Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample," Discussion Paper 98.55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm83, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    5. Hung-Cheng Lai & Kuan-Min Wang, 2016. "Does Survivorship Bias of Mutual Funds Differ Between Liquidations and Mergers?," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 299-314.
    6. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simon, Guillaume, 2010. "Nonparametric Analysis of Hedge Funds Lifetimes," TSE Working Papers 10-174, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Ter Horst, J.R. & Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1998. "Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample," Other publications TiSEM ef73810c-da4e-422f-b277-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    9. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    10. Houdou Basse Mama & Alexander Bassen, 2017. "Neglected disciplinary effects of investor relations: evidence from corporate cash holdings," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 221-261, February.
    11. Philpot, James & Hearth, Douglas & Rimbey, James, 2000. "Performance persistence and management skill in nonconventional bond mutual funds," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 247-258, 00.
    12. Dai, John & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2009. "Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Role of Funding and Redemption Options on Leverage," MPRA Paper 16483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2004. "The Bank Bias: Segmentation of French Fund Families," Working papers 107, Banque de France.
    14. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    15. Zhao, Xinge, 2004. "Why are some mutual funds closed to new investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1867-1887, August.
    16. Astrachan, Joseph H., 2010. "Strategy in family business: Toward a multidimensional research agenda," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 6-14, March.
    17. Jenke Ter Horst & Marno Verbeek, 2007. "Fund Liquidation, Self-selection, and Look-ahead Bias in the Hedge Fund Industry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 605-632.
    18. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January.
    19. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & Verbeek, Marno, 2001. "Eliminating look-ahead bias in evaluating persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 345-373, September.
    20. Michael K. Fung, 2006. "R&D, knowledge spillovers and stock volatility," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 107-124, March.
    21. Boldron, François & Fève, Frédérique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Panet-Amaro, C. & Valognes, C., 2010. "Econometric Models and the Evolution of Post-Offices Network," TSE Working Papers 10-180, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    22. Simon Stevenson, 2004. "A performance evaluation of portfolio managers: tests of micro and macro forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 391-411.
    23. Berkowitz, Michael K. & Kotowitz, Yehuda, 2000. "Investor risk evaluation in the determination of management incentives in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 365-387, November.

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