IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/eureir/7666.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stability through cycles

Author

Listed:
  • de Groot, E.A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with lengths ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle lengths are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Stability through cycles," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7666
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/7666/ei%202006-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco Louçã & Jan Reijnders (ed.), 1999. "The Foundations of Long Wave Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1516.
    2. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    3. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    4. Matutinovic, Igor, 2002. "Organizational patterns of economies: an ecological perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 421-440, March.
    5. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    6. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Cycles in basic innovations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G. Silverberg, 2007. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 50, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Reijnders, Jan P.G., 2009. "Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 90-113, June.
    4. Jacopo Staccioli & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Back to the past: the historical roots of labor-saving automation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 27-57, March.
    5. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Cycles in basic innovations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Fusari, Angelo, 2014. "An Explanation of Economic Change and Development," MPRA Paper 60042, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    7. Marianna Epicoco & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Anne Plunket, 2020. "Technological novelty and productivity growth: a cliometric approach," Working Papers of BETA 2020-37, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. de Groot, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans, 2012. "Common socio-economic cycle periods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 59-68.
    10. Florencia Jaccoud & Fabien Petit & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona, 2024. "Automation and Employment over the Technology Life Cycle: Evidence from European Regions," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-02, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    11. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    12. Ziad Rotaba & Catherine Beaudry, 2012. "How Do High, Medium, And Low Tech Firms Innovate? A System Of Innovation (Si) Approach," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(05), pages 1-23.
    13. Martin Henning & Hans Westlund & Kerstin Enflo, 2023. "Urban–rural population changes and spatial inequalities in Sweden," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 878-892, May.
    14. Kriedel, Norbert, 2006. "Long waves of economic development and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies: The case of railway networks," HWWI Research Papers 1-1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    15. Vianna Franco, Marco P. & Ribeiro, Leonardo Costa & Albuquerque, Eduardo da Motta e, 2022. "Beyond Random Causes: Harmonic Analysis Of Business Cycles At The Moscow Conjuncture Institute," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 456-476, September.
    16. R. Wagner-Döbler, 1999. "William Goffman's “Mathematical approach to the prediction of scientific discovery” and its application to logic, revisited," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 46(3), pages 635-645, November.
    17. António Madureira & Nico Baken & Harry Bouwman, 2011. "Value of digital information networks: a holonic framework," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, April.
    18. Hayter, Roger & Clapp, Alex, 2020. "Towards a collaborative (public-private partnership) approach to research and development in Canada’s forest sector: an innovation system perspective," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Marletto, Gerardo, 2011. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime. A review of the literature," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 47, pages 71-88.
    20. Denise PUMAIN, 2012. "Une Théorie Géographique Pour La Loi De Zipf," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 36, pages 31-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fibonacci; business cycles; economic stability; long waves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.