IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v20y2009i2p90-113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913

Author

Listed:
  • Reijnders, Jan P.G.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an effort to dissect 19th century economic growth in the Netherlands into two principal long run components: the domain of the trend and the domain of long waves. Spectral and cross-spectral analysis is used to identify Kondratieffs in volume series. It appears that the long term pattern of development is composed of an inverse S-shaped trend and a Kondratieff wave that is superimposed upon it. Contrary to the British case, long waves in Dutch volume series appear to run contrary to the corresponding long waves in price series. This finding is at variance with the received view on long waves. This typical result is explained by so-called 'Keynes effect' in combination with the characteristics of a small open economy that has to dance to the tune of the dominant British economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Reijnders, Jan P.G., 2009. "Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 90-113, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:90-113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954-349X(09)00022-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer.
    3. Brian Snowdon & Howard R. Vane & Peter Wynarczyk, 1994. "A Modern Guide To Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 450.
    4. Uebele, Martin & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009. "Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from spectral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-57, March.
    5. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. repec:dgr:rugggd:199942 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Crafts, N. F. R. & Leybourne, S. J. & Mills, T. C., 1990. "Measurement of trend growth in European industrial output before 1914: Methodological issues and new estimates," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 442-467, October.
    8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
    9. Rostow, W. W., 1975. "Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 719-753, December.
    10. repec:bla:kyklos:v:35:y:1982:i:3:p:468-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Harley, C. Knick, 1982. "British Industrialization Before 1841: Evidence of Slower Growth During the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 267-289, June.
    12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    13. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1980. "Money and Prices in the Nineteenth Century: An Old Debate Rejoined," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 61-67, March.
    14. Jan P. G. Reijnders, 1992. "Between Trends and Trade Cycles: Kondratieff Long Waves Revisited," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 2, pages 15-44, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    16. Smits, Jan Pieter & Jong, Herman de & Ark, Bart van, 1999. "Three phases of Dutch economic growth and technological change, 1815-1997," GGDC Research Memorandum 199942, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    17. Smits, Jan-Pieter & Jong, Herman de & Ark, Bart van, 1999. "Three phases of Dutch economic growth and technological change, 1815-1997," CCSO Working Papers 199916, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    18. Mokyr, Joel, 1974. "The Industrial Revolution in the Low Countries in the First Half of the Nineteenth Century: A Comparative Case Study," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 365-391, June.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    20. repec:ucp:bkecon:9789057420016 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Wintle,Michael, 2000. "An Economic and Social History of the Netherlands, 1800–1920," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521782951, January.
    22. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    23. Alfred Kleinknecht, 1987. "Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-18559-7, March.
    24. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    25. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    26. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1981. "Money and prices in the 19th century: Was Thomas Tooke right?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 97-127, April.
    27. Arnold, Lutz G., 2002. "Business Cycle Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199256822.
    28. Harley, C. Knick, 1977. "The interest rate and prices in Britain, 1873-1913: A study of the Gibson Paradox," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 69-89, January.
    29. repec:dgr:rugccs:199916 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eirini Ozouni & Constantinos Katrakylidis & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2015. "Investigating the Long Cycles of Capitalism With Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 7-30.
    2. Reischauer, Georg, 2018. "Industry 4.0 as policy-driven discourse to institutionalize innovation systems in manufacturing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 26-33.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    2. Ambler, Steven & Cardia, Emanuela & Phaneuf, Louis, 1992. "Contrats de salaire, croissance endogène et fluctuations," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 175-204, mars et j.
    3. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    4. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2004. "The Macro-dynamics of the Dutch Economy 1800-1913," Working Papers 04-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    7. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    8. Nicholas APERGIS, 1996. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices: Evidence From Seven Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 34(2), pages 204-211, June.
    9. Satyajit Chatterjee, 2000. "From cycles to shocks: progress in business-cycle theory," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 27-37.
    10. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    12. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    13. Flor Michael, 2014. "Post reunification economic fluctuations in Germany: a real business cycle interpretation," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 4, pages 5-17.
    14. David Aadland, "undated". "The economics of cattle supply," Working Papers 2000-11, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    16. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli, 2022. "Trade networks and shock transmission capacity: a new taxonomy of Italian industries," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(1), pages 133-153, March.
    18. Antulio N. Bomfim, "undated". "\"Forecasting the Forecasts of Others:\" Expectational Heterogeneity and Aggregate Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    19. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    20. Michael Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Working Papers 146, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:90-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.