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Cycles in basic innovations

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  • de Groot, E.A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

Basic innovations are often believed to be the drivers of economic growth. It has been widely documented that economic growth follows cyclical patterns of varying length. In this paper we examine if such patterns are also present in basic innovations. For an annual time series of count data covering 1764-1976, we fit a harmonic Poisson regression model. The results suggest the presence of multiple cycles of length 5, 13, 24, 34 and 61. We compare these cycles and their joint effect with widely documented economic cycles and find important resemblances and differences.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Cycles in basic innovations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:6942
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Silverberg, Gerald, 2002. "The discrete charm of the bourgeoisie: quantum and continuous perspectives on innovation and growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1275-1289, December.
    2. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    3. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    4. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2640.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Stability through cycles," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Tan, Hao & Mathews, John A., 2010. "Identification and analysis of industry cycles," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 454-462, May.
    3. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.

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