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Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing

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  • Barrieu, Pauline
  • Fehr, Max

Abstract

In this paper we propose a market consistent futures price dynamics model for cap-andtrade schemes, designed in the spirit of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Historical price dynamics for the EU ETS suggest that, both, European emission Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), certificates, which are generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) - a non-domestic offset mechanism - are significantly related. We use an equilibrium framework to demonstrate that compliance regulation singles out special joint futures price dynamics. Based on this result we propose an arbitrage free futures price model and apply it to the pricing of spread options between EUAs and CERs.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrieu, Pauline & Fehr, Max, 2011. "Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37576, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:37576
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/37576/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
    2. Georg Grüll & Luca Taschini, 2009. "A Comparison of Reduced-Form Permit Price Models and their Empirical Performances," Working Papers 0918, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    3. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    4. Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2008. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-02, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2008.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2267 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Philip Fearnside, 2015. "Tropical hydropower in the clean development mechanism: Brazil’s Santo Antônio Dam as an example of the need for change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 575-589, August.
    3. Bertrand, Vincent, 2014. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 198-220.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    environment; asset pricing; stochastic model applications; markov processes; economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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