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Market-Consistent Modeling for Cap-and-Trade Schemes and Application to Option Pricing

Author

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  • Pauline Barrieu

    (Statistics Department and Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom)

  • Max Fehr

    (Statistics Department and Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom)

Abstract

In this paper we refer to the requirement for industrialized countries to reach a domestic target for greenhouse emissions, as ratified in the Kyoto Protocol, and propose a market-consistent model of futures price dynamics for cap-and-trade schemes designed in the spirit of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Historical price dynamics for the EU ETS suggest that both European emission allowance (EUA) and certified emission reduction (CER) certificates, generated by a nondomestic offset mechanism, are significantly related. We use an equilibrium framework to demonstrate that compliance regulation singles out special price dynamics. Based on this result, we propose an arbitrage-free model and apply it to the pricing of spread options between EUAs and CERs.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Barrieu & Max Fehr, 2014. "Market-Consistent Modeling for Cap-and-Trade Schemes and Application to Option Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 234-249, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:62:y:2014:i:2:p:234-249
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2013.1242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2012. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of Emission Allowances and an Application to CO 2 Option Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 447-475, November.
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    4. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    5. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    6. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    3. Zhang, Xiuyi & Hou, Wenhua, 2022. "The impacts of e-tailer's private label on the sales mode selection: From the perspectives of economic and environmental sustainability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 601-614.
    4. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Modeling environmental policy with and without abatement substitution: A tradeoff between economics and environment?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 34-43.
    5. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2017. "Estimation of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: application to modeling of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 and fuel-switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 169-197, August.
    6. Gianmarco Del Sarto & Marta Leocata & Giulia Livieri, 2024. "A Mean Field Game approach for pollution regulation of competitive firms," Papers 2407.12754, arXiv.org.
    7. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Paes, Carlos Eduardo & Gandelman, Dan Abensur & Firmo, Heloisa Teixeira & Bahiense, Laura, 2022. "The power generation expansion planning in Brazil: Considering the impact of greenhouse gas emissions in an Investment Decision Model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 225-238.
    9. Jongmin Yu & Mindy L. Mallory, 2020. "Carbon price interaction between allocated permits and generated offsets," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 671-700, June.
    10. Tajbakhsh, Alireza & Hassini, Elkafi, 2022. "A game-theoretic approach for pollution control initiatives," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    11. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2019. "How do credit market frictions affect carbon cycles? an estimated DSGE model approach," MPRA Paper 106987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2020.
    12. Gong, Canran & Song, Huaming & Chen, Daqiang & Day, Steven James & Ignatius, Joshua, 2024. "Logistics sourcing of e-commerce firms considering promised delivery time and environmental sustainability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(1), pages 60-75.
    13. Wang, Xinyu & Sethi, Suresh P. & Chang, Shuhua, 2022. "Pollution abatement using cap-and-trade in a dynamic supply chain and its coordination," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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