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Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing

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  • Pauline Barrieu
  • Max Fehr

Abstract

In this paper we propose a market consistent futures price dynamics model for cap-andtrade schemes, designed in the spirit of the European Union�s Emissions Trading Scheme(EU ETS). Historical price dynamics for the EU ETS suggest that, both, European emission Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), certificates, which are generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) - a non-domestic offset mechanism - are significantly related. We use an equilibrium framework to demonstrate that compliance regulation singles out special joint futures price dynamics. Based on this esult we propose an arbitrage free futures price model and apply it to the pricing of spread options between EUAs and CERs.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Barrieu & Max Fehr, 2011. "Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread option pricing," GRI Working Papers 40, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georg Grüll & Luca Taschini, 2009. "A Comparison of Reduced-Form Permit Price Models and their Empirical Performances," Working Papers 0918, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    2. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    3. Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2008. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-02, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2008.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2267 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    2. Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. Bertrand, Vincent, 2014. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 198-220.
    5. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Modeling of Emission Allowance Markets: A Literature Review," Working Papers 1304, Chaire Economie du climat.
    6. Philip Fearnside, 2015. "Tropical hydropower in the clean development mechanism: Brazil’s Santo Antônio Dam as an example of the need for change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 575-589, August.

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