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The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

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  • Chune Young Chung

    (School of Business Administration, College of Business and Economics, Chung-Ang University, 84 Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 06974, Korea)

  • Minkyu Jeong

    (School of Business Administration, College of Business and Economics, Chung-Ang University, 84 Heukseok-ro, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 06974, Korea)

  • Jason Young

    (College of Business, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol came into effect in 1997 to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to address the problem of climate change. The Protocol includes a market-based mechanism designed to offset GHG emissions, called the emissions trading scheme (ETS), allowing companies to “trade” their shortage or surplus allowance. This study examines the determinants of the EU allowance (EUA) price in Phase 3 of the EU ETS (2013–2017). First, the causality between the EUA price and other variables is determined using a Granger causality test. Second, the correlation between the EUA price and each variable is measured using a VECM estimation and an impulse response function. Finally, the relative effect of each variable on the EUA price is determined using a forecast error variance decomposition. The results show that the EUA price has a causal effect on the prices of electricity and natural gas. Second, all variables, except the minimum temperature, show a positive relationship with the EUA price. Furthermore, when unexpected shocks occur, the EUA price shows the highest response to its past price, followed by the electricity price. Third, the past EUA price has the most influence on the EUA price, followed by the coal price.

Suggested Citation

  • Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:11:p:4009-:d:180002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Wenjun Chu & Shanglei Chai & Xi Chen & Mo Du, 2020. "Does the Impact of Carbon Price Determinants Change with the Different Quantiles of Carbon Prices? Evidence from China ETS Pilots," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Huiwen & Wei, Yigang, 2023. "Identifying the determinants of European carbon allowances prices: A novel robust partial least squares method for open-high-low-close data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Xing Zhang & Chongchong Zhang & Zhuoqun Wei, 2019. "Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Multi-Resolution Singular Value Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by the Moth–Flame Optimization Algorithm Considering Energy and Economic Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-23, November.
    7. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Noman, Ambreen, 2021. "The volatility connectedness of the EU carbon market with commodity and financial markets in time- and frequency-domain: The role of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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