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Nonparametric regression under dependent errors with infinite variance

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  • Peng, Liang
  • Yao, Qiwei

Abstract

We consider local least absolute deviation (LLAD) estimation for trend functions of time series with heavy tails which are characterised via a symmetric stable law distribution. The setting includes both causal stable ARMA model and fractional stable ARIMA model as special cases. The asymptotic limit of the estimator is established under the assumption that the process has either short or long memory autocorrelation. For a short memory process, the estimator admits the same convergence rate as if the process has the finite variance. The optimal rate of convergence n−2/5 is obtainable by using appropriate bandwidths. This is distinctly different from local least squares estimation, of which the convergence is slowed down due to the existence of heavy tails. On the other hand, the rate of convergence of the LLAD estimator for a long memory process is always slower than n−2/5 and the limit is no longer normal.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Liang & Yao, Qiwei, 2004. "Nonparametric regression under dependent errors with infinite variance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22874, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:22874
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/22874/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Hall & Liang Peng & Qiwei Yao, 2002. "Prediction and nonparametric estimation for time series with heavy tails," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 313-331, May.
    2. Truong, Young K., 1992. "Robust nonparametric regression in time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 163-177, May.
    3. Hall, Peter & Hart, Jeffrey D., 1990. "Nonparametric regression with long-range dependence," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 339-351, December.
    4. Yao, Qiwei & Tong, Howell, 1996. "Asymmetric least squares regression estimation: a nonparametric approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kokoszka, Piotr S. & Taqqu, Murad S., 1995. "Fractional ARIMA with stable innovations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 19-47, November.
    6. Roussas, George G. & Tran, Lanh T. & Ioannides, D. A., 1992. "Fixed design regression for time series: Asymptotic normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 262-291, February.
    7. Hall, Peter & Peng, Liang & Yao, Qiwei, 2002. "Prediction and nonparametric estimation for time series with heavy tails," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6086, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Koul, Hira L. & Surgailis, Donatas, 2001. "Asymptotics of empirical processes of long memory moving averages with infinite variance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 309-336, February.
    9. Surgailis, Donatas, 0. "Stable limits of empirical processes of moving averages with infinite variance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-2), pages 255-274, July.
    10. Pollard, David, 1991. "Asymptotics for Least Absolute Deviation Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 186-199, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Toshio Honda, 2010. "Nonparametric estimation of conditional medians for linear and related processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 62(6), pages 995-1021, December.
    3. Toshio Honda, 2013. "Nonparametric quantile regression with heavy-tailed and strongly dependent errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(1), pages 23-47, February.
    4. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
    5. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    6. Ngai Chan & Rongmao Zhang, 2009. "M-estimation in nonparametric regression under strong dependence and infinite variance," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 61(2), pages 391-411, June.
    7. Toshio Honda, 2009. "Nonparametric density estimation for linear processes with infinite variance," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 61(2), pages 413-439, June.

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    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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