IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/100239.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency regimes and the carry trade

Author

Listed:
  • Accominotti, Olivier
  • Cen, Jason
  • Chambers, David
  • Marsh, Ian W.

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Accominotti, Olivier & Cen, Jason & Chambers, David & Marsh, Ian W., 2019. "Currency regimes and the carry trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100239, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/100239/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Derek H. Aldcroft & Michael J. Oliver, 1998. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 865.
    2. James, Harold, 2012. "Making the European Monetary Union," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066830, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2021. "Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Working papers 834, Banque de France.
    2. Olivier Accominotti & Thilo N H Albers & Kim Oosterlinck, 2024. "Selective Default Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1979-2015.
    3. Bruno Thiago Tomio & Guillaume Vallet, 2021. "Carry Trade and Negative Policy Rates in Switzerland : Low-lying fog or storm ?," Post-Print halshs-03669561, HAL.
    4. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2023. "How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1307-1319, August.
    5. Bordo, Michael & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2019. "The Gold Pool (1961–1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1027-1059, December.
    6. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
    8. Roger Vicquéry, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries," Working papers 882, Banque de France.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dragos G. TURLIUC & Andreea N. POPOVICI, 2013. "TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN BANKING UNION-Literature review," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 1, pages 221-229, June.
    2. Sebastian de Quant & Sander Tordoir & Shahin Vallee, 2024. "Caught in Geopolitical Fragmentation: How to De-risk Germany´s Economic Model," Working Papers 2, Forum New Economy.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. X. Fernández, Bernardo & Fernández Q, Vladimir & Aldazosa, E. René, 2018. "Una subasta doble de divisas para la determinación del tipo de cambio en Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 29, pages 152-189, May.
    5. Nataliia Kostiuchenko, 2015. "A Challenge Of Trust: Can Distrust Kill The Euro?," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 1(1).
    6. William R. White, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy a Science? The Interaction of Theory and Practice over the Last 50 Years," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 3, pages 73-116, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Gunnar Gunnarsson, 2015. "Fiscal Challenges in Multilayered Unions: An Overview and Case Study," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Imported or home grown? The 1992–3 EMS crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    10. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Kiran Klaus Patel, 2020. "Why the EU Became 'Europe'. Towards a New History of European Union," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 54(1), pages 199-216, June.
    12. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "Divergence Tendencies in the European Integration Process: A Danger for the Sustainability of the E(M)U?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Sinn Hans-Werner, 2019. "Der Streit um die Targetsalden : Kommentar zu Martin Hellwigs Artikel „Target-Falle oder Empörungsfalle?“," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 170-217, September.
    14. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Otani, Akira, 2002. "Do Currency Regimes Matter in the 21st Century? An Overview," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 47-79, December.
    15. Horn, Sebastian & Meyer, Josefin & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Europäische Gemeinschaftsanleihen seit der Ölkrise: Lehren für heute?," Kiel Policy Brief 136, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Grenzwerte für Defizite und Schulden in der Kritik [A Critique of the Caps on Deficits and Debt in the European Monetary Union]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 538-544, July.
    17. Basham, James & Roland, Aanor, 2014. "Policy-making of the European Central Bank during the crisis: Do personalities matter?," IPE Working Papers 38/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Harold James, 2017. "The contribution of monetary institutions to stability," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Mitchener, Kris James & Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2015. "Capital controls and recovery from the financial crisis of the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 188-201.
    20. John Phelan, 2015. "The Road Not Taken: A Comparison Between the Hard ECU and the Euro," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 397-415, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.