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Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone

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  • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde
  • Luis Garicano
  • Tano Santos

Abstract

We study the mechanisms through which the adoption of the Euro delayed, rather than advanced, economic reforms in the Euro zone periphery and led to the deterioration of important institutions in these countries. We show that the abandonment of the reform process and the institutional deterioration, in turn, not only reduced their growth prospects but also fed back into financial conditions, prolonging the credit boom and delaying the response to the bubble when the speculative nature of the cycle was already evident. We analyze empirically the interrelation between the financial boom and the reform process in Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal and, by way of contrast, in Germany, a country that did experience a reform process after the creation of the Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone," NBER Working Papers 18899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18899
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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