IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/793.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Eichengreen Barry
  • Naef Alain

Abstract

Using newly assembled data on foreign exchange market intervention, we construct a daily index of exchange market pressure during the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System. Using this index, we pinpoint when and where the crisis was most severe. Our analysis focuses on a neglected factor in the crisis: the role of the weak dollar in intra-EMS tensions. We provide new evidence of the contribution of a falling dollar-Deutschmark exchange rate to pressure on EMS currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen Barry & Naef Alain, 2020. "Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis," Working papers 793, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/wp793_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omar F. Saqib, 2002. "Interpreting Currency Crises: A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Issues," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 303, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord12-1.
    3. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    4. Harry Garretsen & Klaas Knot & Erwin Nijsse, 1998. "Learning about fundamentals: The widening of the French ERM bands in 1993," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 25-41, March.
    5. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    6. Ms. Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," IMF Working Papers 2018/030, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Brendan Brown, 1979. "The Dollar-Mark Axis: On Currency Power," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-04245-6, December.
    8. Dyson, Kenneth & Featherstone, Kevin, 1999. "The Road To Maastricht: Negotiating Economic and Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296386.
    9. Alain Naef, 2021. "Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 180-201.
    10. Alain Naef, 2020. "Blowing against the Wind? A Narrative Approach to Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 0188, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "Fixed exchange rates as a means to price stability: What have we learned?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 447-468, April.
    12. Brandner, Peter & Grech, Harald & Stix, Helmut, 2006. "The effectiveness of central bank intervention in the EMS: The post 1993 experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 580-597, June.
    13. Marta Abreu, 2003. "The Portuguese Escudo in the ERM," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Regis Barnichon & Christian Brownlees, 2019. "Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 522-530, July.
    15. Seppo Honkapohja & Erkki Koskela, 1999. "The economic crisis of the 1990s in Finland," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 400-436.
    16. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    17. Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86, March.
    18. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    19. James Forder & Stan Hurn, 2003. "Dollar‐Deutschemark Polarisation: Comparing The Pound And Franc," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 217-231, August.
    20. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    22. James,Harold, 2020. "Making a Modern Central Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108799492.
    23. Paolo Pesenti & Cédric Tille, 2000. "The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    24. Walsh, B., 1995. "The Effects of the Widening of the ERM Bands on the Irish Pound," Papers 95/5, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
    25. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
    26. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    27. Buiter,Willem H. & Corsetti,Giancarlo & Pesenti,Paolo A., 2001. "Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794404.
    28. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2008. "The Baring Crisis and the Great Latin American Meltdown of the 1890s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 462-500, June.
    29. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    30. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    31. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    32. Buiter,Willem H. & Corsetti,Giancarlo & Pesenti,Paolo A., 1998. "Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521495479.
    33. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-443, May.
    34. Gros, Daniel, 2014. "The EMS Crisis of the 1990s: Parallels with the present crisis?," CEPS Papers 9119, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    35. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    36. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1996. "International Implications of German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 1508, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    37. James,Harold, 2020. "Making a Modern Central Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108835015.
    38. Brendan M. Walsh, 1995. "The effects of the widening of the ERM bands on the Irish pound," Working Papers 199505, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    39. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
    40. James, Harold, 2012. "Making the European Monetary Union," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066830, Spring.
    41. Mee,Simon, 2019. "Central Bank Independence and the Legacy of the German Past," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108499781.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigue Dossou-Cadja, 2024. "The 1992-93 EMS Crisis and the South: Lessons from the Franc Zone System and the 1994 CFA Franc Devaluation," Working Papers 0246, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
    2. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    5. Franc Klaassen & Kostas Mavromatis, 2016. "Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-034/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Jesper Rangvid & Carsten Sørensen, 2002. "Convergence in the ERM and Declining Numbers of Common Stochastic Trends," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 183-213, September.
    7. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, "undated". "Credibility and Duration in Target Zones: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2003-19, FEDEA.
    8. Volz, Ulrich, 2005. "Pegs, Baskets, and the Importance of Policy Credibility: Lessons of the 1992-93 ERM Crisis," HWWA Discussion Papers 323, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    9. Victor Yotzov, 2014. "Prognostic Power of Early Warning Signals for Financial Crises – Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Results," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-38.
    10. Volz, Ulrich, 2005. "Pegs, Baskets, and the Importance of Policy Credibility: Lessons of the 1992-92 ERM Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 26238, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    11. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    12. Tassos Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2004. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study using Multiple-Response Models," Discussion Paper Series 2004_23, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2004.
    13. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    14. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    15. Alain Naef, 2021. "Dirty float or clean intervention? The Bank of England in the foreign exchange market," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 180-201.
    16. Michele Bagella & Leonardo Becchetti & Iftekhar Hasan, 2004. "The Anticipated and Concurring Effects of the EMU," CEIS Research Paper 55, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    17. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    18. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    19. Elien Meuleman & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2022. "Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, and Euro Zone Bank Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    20. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary System; exchange rates; foreign exchange intervention; currency crisis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.